India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Of buses and people

India's and Pakistan's February 15 decision to start bus service between the separated parts of Kashmir has given their peace talks a badly needed boost of energy, and an extensive array of people-to-people contacts have been well received in both countries. Both countries are committed to continuing the dialogue, but they are still a long way from seriously negotiating the issues that have divided them for over half a century. Pakistan is looking for evidence that the thorny Kashmir issue is moving forward; India is hoping that popular contacts will build enough confidence to change regional politics. Commitment to talking may keep violence down for a time, but will not by itself solve the problems between India and Pakistan.

Keeping talks alive: The agreement on the basic arrangements for starting bus service between Srinagar, capital of Indian-administered Kashmir, and Muzaffarabad, capital of the Pakistan-administered part, came as a badly needed tonic to an India-Pakistan dialogue that was in danger of petering out. The agreement balanced the needs of both sides. Pakistan got its way on the knotty question of travel documents: rather than passports and visas, travelers will carry entry permits, to be issued within each side's part of Kashmir and apparently approved by the other side. India succeeded in opening travel to all citizens, rather than restricting it to residents of Jammu and Kashmir. The launch of bus service was set for April 7, a date that may slip a bit because of disruption caused by heavy snows in Kashmir.

This was the first visible result from the dialogue since Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met in New York in September 2004. At the same time, popular contact between Indians and Pakistanis was growing at an accelerated pace. Besides visits of delegations between the two countries, both countries had expanded the number of visitors and the places they could visit. Pakistanis, including journalists, visited India and Jammu and Kashmir, and Indian journalists visited Pakistan and Azad Kashmir. And in March 2005, the Pakistani cricket team toured India, to the huge enjoyment of audiences from both countries. Indian visa officers in Pakistan were reported to have issued 20,000 visas in the few days preceding the first game.

In December 2004, prominent Kashmiris from both sides of the Line of Control attended a meeting sponsored by Pugwash in Kathmandu. They held a meeting separate from the Indian and Pakistani participants, a first for Kashmiris from different parts of the state. They then issued a statement that eloquently called on India and Pakistan to work with Kashmiris toward a genuine peace settlement.

The view from Islamabad: Pakistanis welcome the opportunity for visits, but feel that the foundations for better Indo-Pakistani relations are still at best fragile. They favor the bus service but do not want this first piece of Kashmir-related progress to be the last. Government officials are pleased at the way the negotiating process worked in the run-up to the bus announcement, including both formal and back-channel contacts. But they are concerned about problems ahead, including growing disagreements over water. The Pakistan government appears to have strong popular support for its India policy. Secular politicians who have little good to say about Musharraf agree that maintaining the dialogue makes sense. The religious parties are less enthusiastic, but even they accept the bus agreement and support expanded popular contact.

The view from Delhi: The Indian government also has strong support for maintaining talks, starting bus service and expanding popular contacts. However, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is starting to take its gloves off in dealing with the government on Pakistan policy. In both countries, popular support could turn out to be quite shallow if there were a resurgence of violence or some new horrible incident.

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