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CRISIS OVERVIEW
Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated sharply after the 22 April 2025 Pahalgam attack by the Kashmir Resistance, also known as the Resistance Front, in Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack killed at least 26 civilians and injured dozens (AJ 02/05/2025; HRW 30/04/2025; DW 12/05/2025; DH 22/05/2025). The ensuing escalation of violence in Kashmir has led to casualties and injuries, large-scale civilian displacement, and serious disruptions to essential services, such as education and healthcare, on both sides of the border. Unlike previous flare-ups in the continuing dispute, the current situation represents a significant escalation given its intensity, the broader geographic spread, and the sustained targeting of civilian areas. The resulting emotional and psychological distress among affected communities underscores the depth of the crisis and the urgent need for de-escalation and humanitarian response (IHA 09/05/2023; HRW 30/04/2025; IR 10/05/2025; BBC 18/05/2025).
On 7 May, India launched the Operation Sindoor missile strikes on Pakistan, targeting nine sites across Punjab and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), administered by Pakistan, triggering cross-border shelling, drone incursions, and heightened military skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC) and border states (CNN 07/05/2025; Le Monde 16/05/2025; CFR 12/05/2025). Until 31 May, the exact number of casualties caused by conflict was uncertain, although some sources mention more than 70 people killed in missile, drone, and artillery fire on both sides and at least 51 injuries in AJK in Pakistan-administered areas (AJ 31/05/2025; IR 10/05/2025). Shelling has damaged 139 houses, displacing over 3,100 people in Bagh, Haveli, and Muzaffarabad districts of AJK. The main needs of the displaced population in AJK are shelter, NFIs, protection, and specialised medical support (IR 10/05/2025).
In response to Operation Sindoor, Pakistan targeted multiple Indian military bases in Bhuj, Jammu, Pathankot, and Udhampur on 8 May using high-speed missiles, drones, and fighter jets (AA 10/05/2025; India Today 09/05/2025). In Indian-administered Kashmir, by 8 May, the Pakistan Army’s shelling of villages in four districts near the LoC in Poonch sector had killed at least 12 civilians and injured 51. It also damaged houses and displaced civilians, whose main needs include shelter and NFIs (The Hindu 08/05/2025; The Wire 14/05/2025).
On 10 May, India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire brokered with US support, but within hours, both sides had launched missile strikes on border cities and towns. The nearimmediate breakdown of the agreement shows there is unpredictability of humanitarian access and undermines protection guarantees for civilians and access to essential services (Reuters 10/05/2025; US DOS 10/05/2025; AJ 10/05/2025). Media restrictions imposed on both sides of Kashmir aggravate the situation by limiting humanitarian responders’ knowledge of the needs of the affected population. This escalation of conflict between India and Pakistan has heightened fears of a broader military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed states, marking the most significant bilateral flare-up since 2019. Risk reduction mechanisms remain weak, largely owing to entrenched mistrust and the absence of institutionalised communication channels (CFR 12/05/2025; AP 25/04/2025; PJSS 25/12/2024).