The post quake situation in Kashmir
is another diaster waiting to happen.
The death toll so far in Pakistan is
estimated to be more than 40,000, but this could easily double. While the
oficial death toll in India appears comparativey low at 1,400, it can skyrocket
any moment. About seventy per cent villages, still await relief, particularly
tents. Three million shelterless are spending nights in the open. Many
villages continue to remain inaccessible nearly two weeks after the quake.
Cut-off villages need urgent help and medical aid and thousands could die
of hypothermia, injuries, and disease over the next few weeks as the harsh
Himalayan winter looms.
There are reports that 15,000 tents have been supplied. But these are such that they cannot keep out the harsh cold of the Himalayan winter. Winter has not yet begun but night temperatures drop as low as minus five degrees centigrade. What are required are actic or winterised tents that can keep out the cold, withstand the howling winds and do not crumble under the six to eight feet of snowfall, and allow a fire to be lighted inside (kerosene stoves or heaters would create another logistical problem of supply of fuel). ADEPT's attempts to source such tents are being frustrated. There appears to be a worldwide short-supply of such tents.
The worst hit areas are mountainous, most backward areas. Many villages remain virtually cut-off from the rest of the state and the roads leading to these isolated areas remain officially closed for traffic during over six month long winter period. In these areas are uncounted civilians whose fate is still unknown. Currently relief measures are confined to more accessible areas. However, vigorous efforts need to be made to reach out to earthquake victims even in the less accsesible and inaccessible areas. It is estimated that at least one hundred helicopters working round the clock are required to deal with the situation. But this is in a peaceful situation.
"....The Mujahideen have resumed military activities," proclaims a militant web-site. On October 18 an attack in Srinagar killed the education minister, Ghulam Nabi Lone and 8 others. A soldier was killed and three others injured in an explosion in the Bhimber Gali area of Poonch district. Two more army personnel were killed and a civilian wounded when militants hurled hand grenades and opened fire on a Border Security Force (BSF) patrol party at Sopore in North Kashmir on the afternoon of 21 October. Six militants and two securitymen were killed in separate gunbattles in Jammu and Kashmir, and 15 persons were injured in a grenade attack in Srinagar on 21 October. Two labourers were injured when an explosive device went off near a in Baramulla district in the night of 21 Oct.
Can 30,000 winterized arctic tents be procured and deployed across the vast quake affected region much of which is accessible only by helicopter?
Even if these are procured and deployed, can a steady supply of fuel be maintained to keep the survivors warm and cook food? Can medical aid be provided to the countless injured on the less accessible mountainsides?
Even if this can be done, can those requiring major surgery be evacuated to hospitals that can provide the facilities?
Can adequate sanitary facilities be provided to prevent illness among the survivors?
Can a do-no-harm ceasefire be imposed to allow relief, recovery, and rebuilding?
Full fledged recovery and rebuilding operations have to wait 6 months or more as nothing can be done during the harsh himalayan winter. Can 3 million survivirs be kept alive and healthy through the winter?
A top UN aid official has called upon NATO to stage a massive air-lift to evacuate the survivors. Even if this imposible dream could be achieved there is still the question of housing three million refugees that has to be dealt with.
Unless the International community can come up with immediate answers to these questions there will be fifty thousand more deaths in the days to come.