Climate Risk Country Profile - India



• Historical temperature rise in India has been slightly lower than the global average, however projections of future change are in line with, or slightly above, those expected globally.

• By the end of the century, average temperature in India is projected to increase by 1.1°C–4.1°C over the 1986–2005 baseline, with the rate of warming dependent on the 21st century emissions pathway.

• Projected temperature rises are strongest in the northern regions of India, and annual minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase at a greater magnitude than national average temperatures.

• Disaster risk reduction and adaptation should be considered very high priorities in India in order to protect communities from the widespread and diverse increases in projected hazard intensities.

• Intensification of climate extremes is projected in India, with increased drought risk, and increases in the quantity of precipitation during heavy rainfall events.

• Without adaptation measures, extreme river floods are expected to affect an additional 13 to 34 million people by the 2040s and coastal flooding is expected to affect an additional 5 to 18 million people by the 2070s to end of the century.

• Very large potential increases in heat-related ill health, diarrheal disease, and malnourishment are already beginning to impact communities; these threats are projected to intensify.

• Major restructuring of agricultural systems, with consideration of crop range shifts, is likely required in order to respond to the negative outlook for yields, particularly of staple cereal crops.

• Urban areas and key infrastructure will face major pressures, particularly from rising temperatures and water resource management challenges.

• Damage and loss impacts are likely to fall disproportionately on the urban and rural poor, those without assets, and minority groups. Without wide reaching adaptation and disaster risk reduction, inequalities are likely to widen and poverty to prevail.