In March, most areas of Honduras continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, a growing share of poor households across the southwestern Dry Corridor are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as they exhaust their food stocks atypically early ahead of the April-August lean season. These poor households, particularly subsistence farmers, are increasingly struggling to meet minimum food needs and are beginning to rely on negative coping strategies such as selling livestock and other productive assets. At the peak of the lean season, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in several parts of the Dry Corridor.
Prices for white maize and red beans remain persistently above average, continuing trends observed since mid‑2025. As of February, white maize prices, although stable month‑on‑month, were more than 50 percent above last year and nearly 45 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting tight market supplies and increased production costs. Red beans remain near average compared to last year, but 11.5 percent higher than the five-year average, due to repeated weather shocks and high input costs. These high prices continue to strain budgets and limit purchasing power among poor households.
Erratic and below-average rainfall observed in early 2026 has continued through March and is expected to intensify during theprimeraseason, limiting agricultural labor demand. Mid-March rainfall shows highly uneven patterns across the Dry Corridor, with anomalies of 75 millimeters below average in the western Dry Corridor and nearly 200 millimeters above average in the southern Dry Corridor. Continued irregular precipitation and below-average rainfall is expected, combined with above-average temperatures, a prolonged canícula dry spell, and accelerated soil‑moisture loss. These conditions will increase the risk of pests and diseases and constrain primera planting and associated labor demand, as well as early crop development, particularly for subsistence farmers in Dry Corridor areas without irrigation.
The conflict in the Middle East is likely to increase fuel and fertilizer prices in Honduras. While fuel prices for gasoline and diesel remained stable in February, prices increased weekly throughout March amid growing disruptions to global oil markets. Elevated fuel prices are expected to increase costs of food production and transportation, although the extent of price increases will depend on the trajectory of the conflict and market disruptions. Although industry officials have confirmed a sufficient supply of fertilizer for the primera season, prices have begun to rise following rising global prices. If disruptions to fertilizer supply and transport persist, further price increases for agricultural inputs (between April and June) are likely during the peak of the procurement window. As a result, smallholder producers are likely to reduce fertilizer application rates during the primera season, leading to slight to moderate reductions in yields and household food stocks.
