Honduras - Key Message Update: Erratic rainfall likely to negatively impact apante/postrera tardía harvests, January 2026

Key Messages

• In early 2026, elevated staple food prices and below-average primera and postrera production for smallholder farmers are expected to reduce food access for poor households once seasonal agricultural labor demand declines. Near-average national maize production for the primera and postreraseasons has helped maintain average market supply through January; however, erratic rainfall resulted in below-average yields and atypically low household maize stocks for smallholder farmers – particularly in the Dry Corridor. Similarly, while 2026 apante/postrera tardíaharvests are projected to be near-average at the national level, poor rainfall distribution as well as above-average temperatures through early 2026 are expected to inhibit normal crop development in localized areas of the Dry Corridor, resulting in below-average outcomes for smallholder farmers, particularly for red beans. As food stocks among affected smallholder farmers are depleted atypically early, these households will increasingly depend on market purchases at a time when maize and bean prices remain above average.
• Coffee and sugarcane harvests are currently sustaining seasonal increases in household income. High international coffee prices and the adoption of rust-resistant varieties have supported increases in cropped area, expected yields, and harvest totals, ensuring labor demand in average ranges. However, by March, both harvests are expected to conclude, resulting in a typical seasonal decline in cash crop labor demand and associated income. Meanwhile, remittances – an important income source for rural households – remain elevated in early 2026, continuing the observed trend of above-average remittances throughout 2025.
• Markets remain well supplied in early 2026. However, white maize prices remain above average, driven by tighter supply resulting from near-average domestic production combined with below-average imports. In December 2025, white maize prices stood 7 percent higher than the month before and nearly 45 percent higher compared to the previous year, driven by below-average carryover stocks and imports. Although prices were relatively stable compared to the previous month, red bean prices also remain elevated overall and stand nearly 30 percent above last year, driven by a delay in the postrera harvest and localized disruptions in commercial activities. Prices for both staples are expected to remain above average through May, driven mainly by the compounding impacts of multiple prior seasons of below-average production and above-average import demand. Meanwhile, current fuel prices remain relatively stable compared to both last month and last year, helping maintain stable transportation and distribution costs.
• Temporary market disruptions have been reported amid the ongoing state of exception following last year’s presidential elections. Periodic checkpoints, curfews, and protest-related roadblocks have intermittently restricted mobility and shortened market hours in key urban areas, primarily Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula. These disruptions have caused temporary price increases, particularly for staple foods in Tegucigalpa. While national food supplies remain adequate, traders report delays and higher transportation costs, price spikes, and reduced availability of perishable goods in localized areas. For urban households reliant on informal work, these disruptions are currently constraining household budgets via reduced working hours and wages and higher prices. Localized and temporary disruptions are expected to continue through 2026.
• Erratic and above-average rainfall has continued in early 2026, triggering localized flooding in coastal areas of Atlántida and the Bay Islands. At the same time, the combination of poor rainfall distribution and above-average temperatures is expected to reduce yields for the apante/postrera tardía harvest, particularly in the Dry Corridor, located along the western border of Honduras. For smallholder farmers already facing reduced household food stocks from earlier below-average harvests, these additional yield reductions will accelerate the start of the lean season, as food stocks run out and households rely on market purchases earlier than is typical.