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Overview
High food prices, rising costs of agricultural inputs, and the impact of Tropical Storm Sara contributed to approximately 1.8 million people—equivalent to 470,000 households or 18 percent of the national population—facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between December 2024 and March 2025.
Of these, around 116,000 people were classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) nationwide.
Out of the 19 areas analysed (the 18 departments and the Central District), six were classified in Phase 3: Gracias a Dios, Cortés (including El Progreso), Colón, Atlántida, Yoro and Santa Bárbara.
The remaining departments were classified in Phase 2, representing 37 percent of the national population. During this period, the departments facing the highest severity of food insecurity were:
Gracias a Dios (50 percent), Colón (25 percent), Atlántida (22 percent), and Cortés (including El Progreso, at 21 percent). The areas with the largest numbers of people facing acute food insecurity included Cortés (including El Progreso) (454,000 people), the Central District (136,000), Atlántida (115,000) and Santa Bárbara (101,000 people).
In the first projected period (April to July 2025) - coinciding with the time of release of this report - the number of people estimated to face acute food insecurity (1.7 million) showns a slight improvement in their levels compared to the December-March analysis period.
Among them, 92,000 people are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). During this period, while the dry season may be stimulating tourism in some parts of the country and food inflation shows signs of stabilisation, households depending on agricultural production are anticipated to face hardship due to depleted food stocks during the lean season. Moreover, the potential or (simply) the suspension of some projects funded by USAID is estimated to negatively impact key sectors such as education, health, and migration, further increasing the vulnerability of the population.
Compared to the same previous in 2024, the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above has reduced by around 100,000 people.
For the second projection period (August to November 2025), conditions are expected to improve marginally, with an estimated 1.6 million people (16 percent of the analysed population) facing IPC Phase 3 or above. During this period, 62,000 people could be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The improvement is mainly driven by favourable climatic forecasts indicating ENSO-neutral conditions, with low likelihood of extreme events such as heavy floods and droughts due to El Niño and La Niña phenomena. Positive harvest prospects will likely improve food availability and keep food prices steady through November 2025.