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EARLY ACTION PROTOCOL SUMMARY
Back in January 2023 the IFRC Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) allocated CHF 481,147 for the Honduras Red Cross to implement early actions to reduce and mitigate the impact of droughts in Honduras. The early actions to be conducted were pre-agreed with the National Society and are described in the Early Action Protocol.
Honduras is a country exposed to hazards such as floods, droughts, landslides, among others.
Historically, the threat that has caused the greatest impacts in the country is flooding, for which Honduran Red Cross already has an Early Action Protocol (EAP) for floods associated with tropical storms ready to be activated. However, the threat of drought has a very important impact on vulnerable communities.
Historically, the most intense droughts in the Honduran have been linked to the positive phase of the El Niño phenomenon. Specifically, drought episodes that been notably severe when the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) exceeded a magnitude of 2.0
The severity of drought events that occur in the Honduran territory varies according to the region, however, the risk of drought is constant in the departments of Choluteca, Valle, Lempira, Francisco Morazán, Comayagua, Yoro, La Paz, El Paraíso and Intibucá, and the historical analysis of the main recorded droughts provides evidence of the repeated exposure of the population living in the Honduran dry corridor. This population normally lives in the southern, western and some parts of the central and eastern regions, where exposure to El Niño is immediate. These regions are characterized by being mountainous and dry.
The EAP targets the subsistence farming population living in the Honduran dry corridor and in parallel identified those families belonging to vulnerable groups and with high poverty rates.
The selection of target municipalities was determined using the INFORM risk index methodology.
Three dimensions of risk were considered: 1) Exposure 2) Vulnerability and 3) Lack of Response Capacity. All variables were calculated at the municipal level as this is the administrative level responsible for local risk management.
The prioritized impacts for Honduras in the case of droughts associated with the El Niño phenomenon are as follows:
⎯ Substantial loss of crops and livestock in vulnerable families that are dependent on subsistence agriculture.
⎯ Increase in the price of basic commodities.
⎯ Limited access to safe water among vulnerable families due to scarcity and increased purchase costs.
⎯ Increased incidence of diarrheal diseases due to consumption of unsafe water or inadequate sanitation conditions.
The triggers were constructed and agreed with the technical work team, based on the monitoring of meteorological conditions three months in advance and defining a control mechanism to be evaluated monthly after the start of the EAP.
Triggers 1 and 2 were required for the activation of the early action:
Trigger 1: When the Permanent Contingency Committee (COPECO) and National Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Symmetric Studies (CENAOS) issues an alert warning of "El Niño" in area 3.4, for the next 3 months with a 60% probability based on the IRI forecast from the OND quarter (year -1) and except for AMJ and MJJ quarters (Predictability barrier).
Trigger 2: When COPECO/CENAOS issues a climate outlook bulletin where a serious precipitation deficiency is forecast when the accumulated rainfall for the next 3 months is between the 10th and 20th percentile in the dry corridor starting in the (March-May) MAM quarter (year 1) with a probability greater than 60%.
The identification of the intervention zone was based on the elements that define risk and overlap with the drought forecast, which gave the National Society the guideline to select the potentially affected municipalities with the highest risk, which were prioritized for early actions.