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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Hurricane Sara damaged 2024 minor season maize crops in northern regions
- Cereal import requirements expected 15 percent above average in 2024/25
- Prices of maize about 5 percent lower year‑on‑year in March 2025
- Annual food inflation rate lower year‑on‑year in March 2025
Hurricane Sara damaged 2024 minor season maize crops in northern regions
Harvesting of the 2024 Postrera minor season maize crops, amounting to about 20 percent of the total annual production, concluded in January 2025. The output is estimated to be below average, as abundant precipitations in the last quarter of 2024 severely hampered crops in their late development stages. The landfall of Tropical Storm Sara on 14 November 2024 caused crop losses in northern areas of key producing departments of Olancho and Santa Barbara.
Planting operations of the 2025 main season maize crops typically start in May. Abundant rainfall amounts in April replenished soil moisture deficits caused by severe dry weather conditions and hotter‑than‑average temperatures in March, providing favourable conditions for the start of planting operations. Weather forecasts for the May to July 2025 period, coinciding with planting and crops’ early development stages, point to average precipitation amounts which are expected to benefit yields. However, the planted area is forecast to slightly decline for the second consecutive year due to lower year‑on‑year prices and to rising production costs.
Cereal import requirements expected 15 percent above average in 2024/25
Cereal imports in the 2024/25 marketing year (September/August) are anticipated at 1.46 million tonnes, about 15 percent above the previous five‑year average. High import requirements, mainly from the United States of America, reflect the strong domestic demand of wheat and rice by the growing population as well as of yellow maize by the feed industry.
Prices of maize about 5 percent lower year‑on‑year in March 2025
Prices of white maize declined continuously from August 2024 to February 2025, reflecting higher year‑on‑year imports and the above‑average harvest in 2024, but showed a slight decline month-on-month in March 2025, in line with seasonal trends. Prices of white maize were about 5 percent below their level of one year earlier. Wholesale prices of red beans increased continuously for the fourth consecutive month in March and were about 7 percent above the previous year’s level, due to the 60 percent year‑on‑year contraction in imports between September 2024 and February 2025, and the low rain‑stricken Postrera harvest. Rice prices remained stable in the first quarter of the year reflecting adequate market availability but were about 5 percent above the previous year’s level, reflecting reduced domestic supply from the below‑average output in 2024.
Annual food inflation rate lower year‑on‑year in March 2025
Food inflation rates in the January to March 2025 quarter almost doubled their low levels of the October to December 2024 period, due to the depreciation of the Honduran lempira against the United States dollar as well as the upward pressure on prices exerted by increased domestic demand from higher year ‑on‑ year remittances reported in January and February 2025. However, food prices in March 2025 were lower than one year before, with an annual inflation rate of food items estimated at 3 percent, against 4.6 percent in March 2024, easing access to food for the most vulnerable households.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .