Honduras

GIEWS Country Brief: Honduras 13-October-2021

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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Maize production in 2021 anticipated at near‑average level

  • Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2021/22 marketing year

  • Prices of white maize started to weaken in September

Maize production in 2021 anticipated at near‑average level

Planting of the 2021 minor season maize crop is ongoing and area is anticipated to be near the average. According to satellite imagery, vegetation conditions are observed to be adequate except in centraleastern areas that received below‑average rains since mid‑September (NDVI anomaly map). Precipitation is forecast at average levels in the November 2021 to January 2022 period, with likely positive effects on crop development.

The harvest of the 2021 main season maize crop is nearing completion and production is anticipated at an average level. Due to well below‑average rainfall amounts at planting time between May and mid‑June, replanting of crops was required in some localized areas of the main producing centraleastern region. Improved precipitation amounts since mid‑June replenished soil moisture and favoured crop development.

Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2021/22 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2021/22 marketing year (September/August) are forecast at high levels of 1.15 million tonnes. The above‑average requirements mainly reflect the sustained demand for yellow maize by the feed industry and the increasing need for wheat and rice in line with population growth. However, requirements are anticipated to decline year on year, reflecting large carryover stocks due to abundant maize and wheat imports in 2020/21.

Prices of white maize started to weaken in September

Prices of white maize weakened in September after sustained increases during the previous five months, when upward pressure from seasonality was exacerbated by increasing production and transportation costs. Prices are expected to continue to decline in the coming months due to the commercialization of the 2021 main season harvests. As of September 2021, average prices of white maize were about 13 percent higher year on year. After declining sharply in August 2020, prices of red beans have been generally stable in 2021 and, in September 2021, they were above their low levels a year earlier. Prices of rice held steady between March and September 2021 and near year‑earlier levels, reflecting adequate market supplies.