Honduras + 4 more

Central America and Caribbean Food Security Outlook, June 2022 to January 2023

Attachments

High prices of staples limit seasonal gains across the region

Key Messages

  • In Central America, atypically high prices are worsening the impact of the ongoing lean season. Poor households in rural and urban areas are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes while very poor households in the Guatemalan and Honduran Dry Corridor, in eastern Honduras, and northern areas of Guatemala affected by Eta and Iota face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as they resort to unsustainable coping and consumption strategies during the lean season. By September, seasonal improvements from primera harvest and the beginning of peak agricultural labor demand will reduce the proportion of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and improve overall food security outcomes. Most areas will be classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January, with some localized areas in the Guatemalan Dry Corridor remaining in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

  • Although regional markets are expected to remain well supplied with maize and beans, the prices of food, transportation, and fertilizers will continue above last year's levels and the five-year averages across the region. These prices will limit seasonal improvements in food availability, purchasing power, and access to food for very poor households who have yet to recover from the economic and climatic events of recent years.

  • The primera season is currently underway, and most crops are developing normally. However, the high cost of agricultural inputs has resulted in smaller cultivation areas for medium and small producers, and excess moisture has caused some localized damage. Above-average rainfall is expected to continue through the end of the year, which may result in a higher incidence of pests and diseases in staple grain and cash crops. This would cause slight to moderate reductions in production, limiting crop reserves for households and a decrease in the demand of agricultural labor.

  • In Haiti, disruptions from inflation, a lack of job opportunities, and insecurity are continuing to constrain household access to food and income. Very poor households, especially those impacted by previous shocks and those located in parts of Port-au-Prince, are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) throughout the outlook period. Meanwhile, the spring harvest was below average in many parts of the country due to rainfall deficits in April and May, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes for households in Artibonite, Centre, Nord, Nord-Est, Ouest, and Nord-Ouest. Depreciation of the Haitian Gourde and high prices of key commodities are also expected to negatively impact households' food access. In Port-au-Prince, the very poor security situation continues to paralyze markets and income-generating activities.