Anticipatory Action: Honduras 2026 Activation

Getting ahead of drought in the Dry Corridor

The UN in Honduras, through FAO, PAHO, UNICEF and WFP, developed this anticipatory action framework for drought in Honduras's Dry Corridor together with the Government and with support from OCHA. Ranked among the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, Honduras faces recurrent drought driven by irregular rainfall and El Niño events, with severe impacts on food security, nutrition, water access and health — particularly for smallholder farmers and rural communities. The framework, approved by the Emergency Relief Coordinator in 2024 and renewed for 2026–2027, aims to protect up to 65,000 people in El Paraíso and Francisco Morazán through collective, cross-sector anticipatory actions triggered as soon as forecasts reach the activation threshold.

The Trigger Mechanism

The mechanism has two monitoring windows — Window A (Primera season) and Window B (Postrera season) — based on seasonal rainfall forecasts aggregated across the departments of El Paraíso and Francisco Morazán. Forecasts are sourced from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5), with OCHA's Center for Humanitarian Data monitoring trigger status and issuing automated monthly updates on the 5th of each month. Thresholds are calibrated to a combined annual return period of 1 in 3 years (1 in 2.92).3 years (1 in 2.92).