Latin America and the Caribbean - Food Security Outlook (June 2023 - January 2024)

Irregular weather disrupts the harvest in Central America, while Haiti continues to face gang violence that drives Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes. In Venezuela, low incomes continue to limit access to food.

Key Messages

• In Haiti, poor households' access to typical sources of food and income continue to be limited by the impacts of inflation and insecurity on the economy, as well as the irregularity of rains on agriculture and livestock. All these factors, exacerbated by the floods in early June, have increased the population in acute food insecurity. An increase in the use of Emergency coping strategies, such as begging, the sale of productive assets, and theft, is still observed, particularly in Cité Soleil and the lower Nord-Ouest. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) results are expected across Haiti through January, while Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is assessed in Cité de Soleil, Port-auPrince, and among pockets of very poor households in some rural areas, in the Nord-Ouest, West, Grand'Anse, Nippes, and Artibonite.

• Insecurity will likely continue to impact households in Cité Soleil, Port au Prince, Artibonite, and the Nord-Ouest. Economic activity and markets continue to be restricted by violence. Incidents of armed clashes by gangs on public transport routes restrict the flow of people and products. Prices of staple foods remain above average, due to high dependence on imported products, the low value of the Haitian currency (HTG), supply difficulties, and high transport costs. The inflation rate remained above 40 percent since January 2023. As a result, the purchasing power of poor households will remain low.

• In Central America, the poorest households located in the Dry Corridor of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala, as well as Alta Verapaz and Altiplano in Guatemala, have faced various shocks in past years, leaving poor households without reserves of basic grains, and below-average income. These conditions, plus the high dependence on the market to purchase food at prices above normal, caused households to start the lean season earlier than usual. As a result, households are reducing the size or number of meals consumed or engaging in other negative coping strategies, indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3), which will last until September. In October, seasonal improvements with the harvest and start of the high labor season will enhance food access and availability for some households who will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity through January.
  However, some will not improve their food security conditions, keeping them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• The erratic distribution of rainfall and the high temperatures associated with El Niño will mainly affect the Dry Corridor throughout the year. The reduction in soil moisture is already affecting various crops. Smallholder farmers who depend on rainfed agriculture and who have little access to fertilizers and pesticides will experience below-average yields. Despite the deceleration of inflation, high prices will continue to limit purchasing power. Markets will remain well-supplied and normal flows of locally produced basic grains are expected. In October, the high labor season will start enhancing food access.

• In Venezuela, despite the improvement in Cesta tickets and bonus Contra La Guerra Económica , access to food remains limited, especially for very poor households in urban and periurban areas whose only source of income is in local currency and do not have access to international remittances. These households continue experiencing gaps in their consumption or applying negative coping strategies. As a result, they will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until January 2024. However, the number of households in this phase will decrease throughout the projection period due to better access to food driven by social benefits and double salaries.

• The cost of the monthly requirements of 2,100 kilocalories per person per day in VED and USD remained stable compared to the previous month. However, compared to May 2022, all costs increased, making access to food difficult. In May, the depreciation of the VED against the USD was 6.5 percent, mainly due to the increase in public spending associated with the increase in bonuses. In the forecast period, the loss of the value of the local currency and the increase in inflation are expected to continue.