Hot Spot profiles are a new type of FEWS NET report that focuses on livelihood zones that frequently need humanitarian food assistance and have a high frequency of classification in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and higher. The Household Economy Analysis (HEA) framework is used to run scenarios for the profiles. The scenarios examine how a historical hazard event impacted poor households’ access to key food and income sources. Any food and income gaps households face due to the historic hazard are quantified, and the indicative IPC Phase is determined.
The results provide analysts with a better understanding of the parameters that trigger acute levels of food insecurity in geographies of concern and can help analysts interpret the emergence of similar parameters in the future.
The hot spot profile methodology was piloted in Haiti in livelihood zone HT03 - Central Plateau Maize and Tubers.
This zone was selected because it is frequently classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis)1 in FEWS NET reporting.
The profile includes two scenarios. The first explores the impacts of the 2015-2016 El Nino Drought, which resulted in well below-average crop production; the second scenario focuses on 2019-2020, when drought, reduced crop production, and large-scale staple food price increases occurred simultaneously.
The 2015-2016 scenario results indicate very poor households met 85-95 percent of their survival needs – indicative of IPC Phase 3 (Crisis); poor households do not experience a survival deficit but do experience a small livelihood protection deficit (15-25%) indicative of IPC Phase 2 (Stressed).
The 2019-2020 scenario results indicate very poor households met 80-90 percent of their survival needs and experience a survival deficit of 10-20 percent, indicative of IPC Phase 3 (Crisis); poor households experience a livelihood protection deficit of 65–75 percent, which is indicative of IPC Phase 2 (Crisis).
In both scenarios, the Indicative IPC phase identified by the hot spot analysis is consistent with the area IPC classifications published in FEWS NET’s food security outlook reports in 2016 and 2020 – in both years, multiple communes in HT03 were classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).