The security environment in Haiti has deteriorated further since President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated on 07 July of this year. The death of the increasingly autocratic Moïse has left a power vacuum; there is no sitting Parliament as he had ruled by decree since January 2020.
A magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck the Tiburon Peninsula near Petit-Trou-de-Nippes, approximately 150kms west of Port-au-Prince, on 14 August.
This was immediately followed by Tropical Storm Grace which struck the area on 16-17 August triggering flash floods.
Ariel Henry signed a cross-party deal on 11 September to lead an interim administration until fresh elections at the end of 2022.
International differences over Haiti’s governance (the UN initially supported Claude Joseph as interim President until elections are held, while the US-led Core Group recognised Ariel Henry as interim Prime Minister) mean that there is UNLIKELY to be strong or coherent leadership for many months, despite Henry now having the support of the wider international community.
The UN also has a mixed history in Haiti, which it has admitted. Aid organisations have also been linked to abuses. There is, therefore, UNLIKELY to be much appetite for another UN peacekeeping mission.
The poor security situation means that there is virtually no prospect of this situation changing now.
Indeed, it will HIGHLY LIKELY be compounded by more widespread looting of assistance along major roads by communities frustrated with lack of support for them.