In Haiti, above-average rainfall has decreased the dry conditions observed at the beginning of the printemps season.
Vegetative health has shown continuous improvement over the last twenty days.
Temperatures have moderated, supporting average soil moisture conditions in most areas.
Update on Seasonal Progress
In the last 30 days, Haiti has experienced above-average rainfall, particularly in the Sud-Est, Ouest, and western Nippes and Sud regions, which received 50 to 100 percent more rainfall than usual, totaling between 150 and over 300 mm. (Figure 1). Although rainfall accumulations were trending near average at the end of June, the distribution remains erratic in space and time.
Despite this variability, vegetative health has rebounded nationwide, and rivers are returning to normal levels, benefiting crop irrigation activities. The most significant improvements have been in the Ouest region, near the border with the Dominican Republic.
Temperatures have decreased slightly, positively impacting soil moisture across the country, but they remain above average. However, localized coastal areas in Nord-Ouest and Artibonite have continuously reported above-average temperatures since early 2024, limiting improvements in soil moisture.
Forecasts
The NOAA hurricane forecast indicates an 85 percent probability of an above-average hurricane season across the Atlantic, with between four and seven major hurricanes likely.
The University of Colorado has indicated that this year’s hurricane season is likely to be similar to those in 1878, 1926, 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2020, further supporting expectations for an above-average season.
These conditions are due to significantly warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures causing lower atmospheric pressure and a more volatile atmosphere, both of which are conducive to hurricane formation. Monitoring these events will be crucial to minimize possible impacts on lives, agricultural activities, and infrastructure.
