Despite some positive developments resulting from intensified law enforcement operations against gangs, security gains remain limited and insufficient to curb the resurgence of armed violence and kidnappings, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across the country. Several neighborhoods in the Port-au-Prince Metropolitan Area (ZMPP) — notably Cité Soleil, Croix-des-Bouquets, Port-au-Prince, and sites hosting internally displaced persons (IDPs) — remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while most rural areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Pressure on poor urban households and displaced populations is intensifying. Poor households are increasingly resorting to negative coping strategies, including reducing the number of meals, borrowing, begging, selling productive assets, and internal migration. These strategies contribute to the persistence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes and are expected to become more widespread during the lean season, from February to June.
Clashes between armed groups and security forces, involving targeted operations and the use of heavy weapons and explosives, continue to disrupt mobility, markets, and access to essential services. Expanding territorial control by gangs limits trade flows, reduces economic activity, and restricts access to livelihoods, while also fueling new internal displacement. According to the International Organization for Migration, armed violence on January 8 in several neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince displaced approximately 5,836 people, most of whom were hosted by families or settled in existing sites, with concentrations in the communes of Port-au-Prince (42 percent), Delmas (29 percent), and Cité Soleil (28 percent).
The winter agricultural season (pigeon peas, sorghum, beans, and maize) is unfolding amid persistent security constraints and worsening economic conditions. In several areas including Lower Artibonite, Lower Plateau, and the West (particularly Montrouis, Arcahaie, and ZMPP), lack of regular access to farmland, inputs, and markets due to insecurity has reduced area planted for the winter season, limiting production potential. Harvests expected between March and May are likely to be below average, reducing agricultural incomes and household food availability, while prolonging dependence on markets between February and May. At the same time, rising prices of agricultural inputs (seeds, fertilizer, fuel), erosion of household purchasing power, limited access to credit, reduced agricultural incomes — along with residual impacts of Hurricane Melissa, particularly in the Grand Sud — are constraining agricultural households’ capacity to invest and to rebuild their productive assets.
Prices of staple foods remain atypically high and continue to severely limit economic access to food for poor households. In December 2025, despite relative month-on-month economic stability in most markets, prices of both local and imported food commodities remained well above the five-year average, with fluctuations reaching up to 130 percent above the five-year average, depending on the product and market. This price stability, supported by a relatively stable exchange rate of around 130 HTG/USD, has not translated into improved food access. The purchasing power of poor households remains severely eroded, contributing to the persistence of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes.
