Attachments
Prepared by Allyson Rail, Brendan Edge, Derek Voitic, and Sam Chiappetta
Executive Summary
Haiti is facing multifaceted and serious challenges. Government institutions have ceased to function effectively, and gangs, backed by the wealthy oligarchs, control nearly two-thirds of the country. Frequent natural disasters further exacerbate the multitude of crises confronting Haiti. While there is certainty about the severity of the situation, there are few actors with the capacity and willingness to adequately address it. Many of the issue areas examined in this diagnostic are closely interrelated to each other. In addition to data on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy’s (CIFP) nine main indicator clusters, this diagnostic draws on research from other relevant sources where appropriate. Four of the nine indicator clusters are considered high-risk factors that will increase the likelihood of further conflict. The effects of five of the clusters are worsening and that of the rest are stable. The diagnostic projects a best, worst, and most likely scenario in the next six months.
Background Information
In October 2016, while still not having completely recovered from the earthquake of 2010, Haiti was hit by Hurricane Matthew, which killed 546 people and putting approximately 1.4 million more in need of immediate humanitarian assistance. A few short weeks later, Jovenel Moise was finally elected President of Haiti at the end of a long and controversial electoral process stretching back to 2015. However, with a voter turnout of only 21% and unaddressed public distrust, his election did little to foster stability. In the following years, economic stagnation and increasing levels of gang violence, kidnappings, and murders plagued Haiti. In 2021, the assassination of President Moise and an earthquake of an even greater magnitude than that of 2010 pushed the country even further into hardship. Nominated, but not officially sworn in, as Prime Minister by the President two days before his assassination, Ariel Henry has become the Haitian government’s de facto, if not completely legitimate, leader. As of January 2023, the terms of all elected officials have expired as elections have failed to take place since 2016. Gangs now control much of Haiti’s territory given the all but complete absence of the state, and most Haitians live in extreme insecurity and poverty.