Haiti’s agricultural production may be strongly affected by sea-level rise and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes) hitting coastal areas.
The quality and yields of coffee in regions where it is currently produced (especially at lower elevations) may decline as a result of lower rainfall and higher night and daytime temperatures.
A projected upward shift in the areas where coffee is suitable will increase the risk of high-altitude forests and protected areas being converted to cropland.
Key ecosystem services provided by coffee must be protected through short- and long-term risk management strategies (e.g., crop diversification and full crop substitution).
In areas where climate change will make coffee only slightly less suitable, farmers should adapt their production by investing in irrigation systems, improving shade management, and adopting drought-tolerant coffee varieties.
In areas where coffee production will cease to be suitable, landowners should begin diversifying agricultural systems, with the aim of eventually switching to crops, such as cocoa, that are expected to remain highly suitable for cultivation throughout the country.
Mango will also remain highly suitable for cultivation in Haiti and could, therefore, replace coffee and dry beans, which will become less suitable in areas between 500 and 1,000 masl by 2050.
Sorghum and yam are also good options for crop diversification, since they are highly likely to become more suitable for future conditions in Haiti.