Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Assumptions
A normal start of the Primera season is expected throughout the region, shifting to below-normal rainfall from July to August, further affecting the already dry areas of Central America (the dry corridor) and Haiti (the North and some areas in Nippes).
The probability of an El Niño has been continually increasing during 2014. These gradually changing weather conditions, along with the transition into the rainy season in June/July, will likely cause higher temperatures, reduced rainfall totals, and irregular rainfall distribution (temporal and/or spatial). This will reduce the amount of moisturize available to crops especially in the dry corridor of the four countries of Central America, which typically receive less precipitation than their neighboring highlands in a normal year.
Due to the 60 percent of probability of an El Niño phenomena, the start of Segunda season (September to October) could see drier than normal conditions, delaying the normal sowing across the LAC region with the potential for reduced crop yields in mid-late 2014.