Haiti + 4 more

Central America and Caribbean: Food Security Outlook - Lean season starts in Haiti and Guatemala, February 2020 to September 2020

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Key Messages

In Haiti, poor and very poor households continue to engage in crisis and stress coping strategies. Most areas are therefore facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stress (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. Livelihoods remain disrupted due to high food price and the negative effects of the socio-political crisis. The Spring harvest starting in June and the expected stabilization of the inflation are expected to improve food security outcomes from June to September 2020.

The socio-political situation remains unpredictable in Haiti, despite the return to normal of most economic activities. Markets are supplied with mostly imported food. Staple food prices are stable or decreasing relative to the previous month but remain significantly above average. The Haitian gourde has remained stable against the USD for several months. Even in areas where they succeeded, fall and winter harvests could not make up for the below average Spring harvest of 2019.

In the Dry Corridor of Central America, very poor households who faced recurrent droughts and have currently depleted their basic grains stocks are depending on food purchases earlier than normal are engaging in negative coping strategies. An increasing number of households will be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, particularly in Guatemala. Other affected households will be in Stress (IPC Phase 2) in the rest of the region.

In Central America, markets are supplied with beans from the Postrera harvest and carryover stocks from the Primera. Maize prices were above average while bean prices were below average, following seasonality. Neutral ENSO conditions provide a forecast for a normal start of the rainy season, average cumulated rainfall and an average Primera crop cycle is the most likely.In Central America, the high demand for casual labor has begun, temporarily improving food access. However, poor households who faced losses in Primera harvest with reduced labor opportunities and limited stocks will be in Stress (IPC Phase 2) and those engaging in negative coping strategies will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).