Attachments
00 Introduction
"Barometer" is a quarterly report published in Spanish and English by the Alert Unit at the Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona's School of Peace Culture. The report analyses the events that have occurred in the world over the course of the previous three months (January - March 2005) under nine main headings: conflicts, situations of tension, peace processes, post-war rehabilitation, humanitarian crises, militarization and disarmament, human rights and International Humanitarian Law, development and gender aspects in peace-building. It serves to update the information contained in the "Alert 2005" annual report and previous issues of "Barometer", using information published weekly in "Semáforo" (1), an electronic newssheet also published by the Alert Unit.
The following are some of the more important items commented on in this quarterly issue of "Barometer", which covers the first three months of 2005:
Armed conflicts
The number of armed conflicts fell to 23 due to progress in the transition process in Liberia and the gradual though fragile improvements seen in Haiti.
A total of 10 contexts of armed conflict remained at stalemate with no visible signs of improvement, while confrontations increased in 6 and were reduced in a further five.
The situation continued to worsen in Darfur (Sudan), and the international community failed to take the measures required to improve the situation, in spite of the various debates held by the UN Security Council.
There was an unprecedented worsening of the situation in Nepal with the coup d'état perpetrated by the monarchy in February.
The death of the Chechen independence leader A. Maskhadov could lead to increasing violence in the Transcaucasian Republic of Chechnya.
Situations of tension and high-risk disputes
The total number of situations of tension has risen to 60, with the inclusion of new scenarios such as those in Togo, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Myanmar and Lebanon. The situations in Angola (Lundas) - DR Congo, Ghana, Sao Tome and Principe and Senegal are no longer included in this category, while what were formerly armed conflicts in Liberia, Haiti and Sudan (SPLA) are now classed as situations of tension.
Togo was the place in Africa that attracted most regional and even international attention during the first three months of the year, due to attempts by the country's armed forces to suspend the Constitution and impose a new President on the country following the death of the previous incumbent, G. Eyadema, after 40 years in power.
In Bolivia, the radicalisation and spreading of the protests mounted by different groups led to attempts by the country's President to resign and the approval by Congress of a global governance plan in order to resolve the political and social crisis affecting the country.
The internal political crisis and international pressure on Syria underlined the fragility and shortcomings of the religion-based system in Lebanon within a regional context that has been destabilised by the occupation of Iraq and the imposition of reforms by the USA.
Peace processes
New exploratory talks began in Burundi, the Philippines, Indonesia (Aceh) and Iraq. The Rwandan armed opposition group, the FDLR, decided to abandon its armed struggle against the Rwandan government.
The SPLA and the Sudanese Government signed a peace agreement that could bring an end to 22 years of armed conflict.
The peace processes in Somalia and Sudan will involve the deployment of more than 20,000 troops in the form of peace-keeping forces.
The majority of peace processes are undergoing serious difficulties. Some causes are the existence of paramilitary groups, the absence of security guarantees for the negotiating parties and the rejection of individual facilitators.
Post-war rehabilitation
In spite of the Donors' Conference held in February, Guinea-Bissau had to postpone the date of its presidential elections, which will be contested by two controversial former leaders.
The United Nations will finally withdraw its personnel from the island of Bougainville (Papua New Guinea) after confirming that the peace, disarmament and reconciliation process is progressing well and following the establishment of the first autonomous Government, once elections have been held in May and June of this year.
The President of Timor-Leste signed an agreement with his Indonesian counterpart, establishing the creation of a Truth and Friendship Commission which will investigate the mass atrocities perpetrated following the referendum of 1999.
In Iraq, the reconstruction process signalled by the USA at the end of the war remains at a standstill, in spite of the fact that funds are in place for this purpose.
Humanitarian crises
Humanitarian organisations denounced the massive shortfall in the funds required to deal with the vast majority of humanitarian crises, particularly those currently being suffered on the continent of Africa.
The United Nations confirmed the collection of around 6,500 million dollars in just three months to assist the people most affected by the earthquake and ensuing tsunamis that devastated some of the countries of southern Asia at the end of December.
The World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe (Japan) agreed to the creation of a Global Early Warning System in order to try and reduce the effects of disasters on the human population and increase international cooperation.
Although the plague of locusts continued to affect some African countries, donors and governments agreed to implement a mechanism that would allow them to coordinate their efforts more effectively in the fight to combat the insect.
The United Nations warned that millions of people could die of hunger in Darfur (Sudan) during the coming months unless the International community acts immediately.
Militarization and disarmament
There was an improved multilateralist approach between the USA and the European Union as a result of agreements made within the framework of NATO, though a number of differences remain on issues such as the EU's arms embargo on China, which could be lifted on 1 July of this year.
The USA continued to increase its military spending, with a rise of 4.8% in its spending budget for 2006.
Relations between Colombia and Venezuela could be affected by the export of conventional weapons that countries like Brazil, Spain and Russia are intending to supply to the Venezuelan Government.
The nuclear programmes of Iran and DPR Korea remained the focus of international attention, in terms of both the threats from the USA and the diplomatic efforts coming from the European side.
The UN Secretary General recommended that special attention be paid to certain aspects of small arms control, such as monitoring processes, the relationship between small arms and the exploitation of resources and acknowledgement of the importance of DDR programmes, among other measures.
Human rights
Various NGOs repeated their condemnation of the abuses that have resulted from the anti-terrorist measures being implemented throughout the world, 4 years after the detention at Guantanamo Bay of 650 people allegedly connected with terrorism.
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights held its 122nd period of sessions, in which it underlined the progress made in the human rights situation on the continent and established two new Special Rapporteurs.
The EU and the USA announced that their foreign action would be conditional upon collaboration from countries implicated in the international criminal courts, particularly in the Balkans region.
Development
The United Nations presented a report in which it stated that the pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals is feasible with the undertakings and mechanisms currently in place, and it proposed measures for achieving the Goals over the next 10 years.
The Kyoto Protocol and the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control both came into force.
An international conference was held on Small Island Developing States, with a view to reviewing the action programme approved 10 years ago and in order to agree a strategy that will allow these countries to provide for their specific needs and achieve the Millennium Development Goals.
The United Nations launched the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development.
Several dozen countries used the ECOSOC forum to evaluate and express support for the targets adopted at the World Summit for Social Development held in Copenhagen in 1995.
The eradication of poverty and HIV/AIDS in Africa and the cancellation of foreign debt (particularly in countries affected by the tsunami) were two of the issues discussed at various international events (the World Economic and Social Forums and the G8).
Gender and peace-building
The process for the review of the Beijing Action Platform ended without any significant progress, underlining the urgency of the undertakings that should have been met and achieved over the past ten years.
90 million women form half of the world's migrant population.
UNFPA implemented a worldwide campaign for the eradication of Obstetric Fistula, which affects 2 million women throughout the world and can condemn them to social ostracism.
Several initiatives involving mediation in armed conflicts are being led by women.
(1) This issue of Barometer includes issues 100-109 of Semáforo
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