CONAKRY, 19 March 2009 (IRIN) - Guineans and the international community are watching to see whether the country's coup leader will accept a civil society proposal to hold an election in 2009 that would put a civilian leader in his place.
International observers are applauding a plan for a transition to civilian rule recently put forth by civil society groups, unions and political parties. Military ruler Moussa Dadis Camara has said he backs the broad-based proposal but at a 16 March meeting with Guineans and representatives of the UN, African Union and donors he fell short of declaring election dates.
Camara said: "I do not have better ideas than the political leaders, trade unions, youth and religious leaders. I can only follow their proposals."
The gathering was part of the second meeting between the junta and a UN-backed international monitoring group since Camara took power in a bloodless coup on 23 December following the death of President Lansana Conté.
The broad-based Guinean coalition presented a programme calling for the formation of a national transition council, parliamentary elections in November and presidential in December.
"It is a very positive thing that civil society has a firm outline of the transition - that they have finally come out with a strong, common position," said Richard Moncrieff, West Africa director for International Crisis Group (ICG).
Many observers were hoping the coup leader would officially commit to an election date at the recent meeting. "Camara is trying not to be pinned down to a date, which is a source of concern," Moncrieff said.
In a 5 March report ICG warns that the military rulers - initially welcomed by Guineans happy to see the end of Conté's regime - must not be allowed to entrench themselves in power. "The military needs to be edged out, to prevent it becoming rooted in the country's public administration."
In a statement following the meeting the international monitoring group encouraged the junta and Guinean civil society to focus on organising legislative and presidential elections in 2009.
Optimism
Political leaders told IRIN they are optimistic the junta will hold to the proposed elections schedule. But they said much remains to be done - on the elections front and many others - to restore stability in Guinea, which has been slammed by socioeconomic and political unrest for decades.
"Everyone has an enormously important role to play in this - politicians, civil society, unions - not just the CNDD [National Council for Democracy and Development, the junta's name]," Aziz Diop, executive secretary of the coalition of civil society organisations, told IRIN on 18 March.
Malick Sankhon, president of the Common Cause party, told IRIN everyone knows how much is at stake in Guinea for volatile West Africa.
"The international community monitors Guinea like a pot of milk on the stove," he said, pointing to coups and unrest in countries like neighbouring Guinea-Bissau and Côte d'Ivoire.
"If they want to help us they should help ensure that voter census and registration succeeds." The ongoing voter registration process has been hampered by a lack of funds and political will, Guineans say.
ICG's Moncrieff said: "Holding elections this year is feasible, but three separate consultations [constitutional referendum and parliamentary and presidential elections] may be extremely challenging at the logistical and financial level."
Sankhon said the international community must also do what it can to improve Guinea's economic situation because continued poverty - exacerbated by the world financial crisis - poses a risk of instability.
Despite the country's vast natural resource wealth Guinea ranks 128th of 135 developing countries measured by the UN for poverty indicators such as standard of living, access to education and general health.
Recent moves by the junta to review the use of natural resource revenues, root out corruption and tackle drug-trafficking have kept Guineans' support alive, but observers say this must not distract from the importance of putting an elected civilian government in place.
"The legitimacy of the junta is waning fast," Moncrieff told IRIN. "After the euphoria of being rid of Lansana Conté the people have started to realise that they need to look forward and not back, and looking forward means looking at the risks of military leaders again becoming entrenched."
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