Attachments
IFRC NETWORK ACTION
JOINT SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
Guinea, spanning 245,857 km with a population of around 13.9 million and a 2.5 per cent rate of annual growth, is a developing country ranking 181 in the Human Development Index (HDI).
More than 50 per cent are under the age of 20, and less than four per cent are over 65 years old. The average household size is more than six people. The population is spread over the four regions of Lower Guinea, Middle Guinea, Upper Guinea, Guinea Forestière, and the special zone of Conakry. More than 37 per cent of the population live in urban areas. The population in rural areas rely almost exclusively on agriculture and livestock.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) p rojects a 5 .6 per cent real GDP growth rate in 2024, 7.9 per cent inflation. The country’s economy heavily relies on the extraction and export of natural resources, particularly bauxite, iron ore, and gold. While these resources represent significant revenue streams for the country, the country’s economy remains vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations and external shocks. Limited diversification into other sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services constrains economic growth and job creation.
From a security standpoint, Guinea ranks 39th in the 2017 Ibrahim African Governance Index, scoring 45.5 out of 100. State weaknesses impact human security encompassing economic, political, religious, community, and environmental dimensions, fostering a culture of impunity. The country has witnessed several coups, attempted coups, and contested elections, leading to period of unrest and violence. Additionally, ethnic tensions and rivalries have fuelled social divisions and conflicts, particularly during political transitions and electoral periods.
Youth unemployment and gender inequality are major challenges in Guinea. The financing of priority social sectors, including health care by the national budget, has continued to decline for several years. In addition, food and nutrition insecurity has been exacerbated by a combination of biophysical and agro-climatic shocks affecting crops and livestock. Economic shocks, such as rising prices in domestic markets, affect many households dependent on purchases for access to food. The cumulative effect of these shocks has led to a gradual deterioration in household livelihoods. This has significantly increased their vulnerability to food and nutrition insecurity while severely reducing their resilience.
The humanitarian situation in Guinea is marked by multidimensional fragility due to recurrent epidemics, natural disasters (floods, landslides, fires, shipwrecks), and socio-political conflicts, posing significant challenges for vulnerable populations.