Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Above-average cereal production gathered in 2018
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Strong economic growth and increasing food price inflation
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Continued assistance needed for vulnerable people
Above-average harvest gathered in 2018
Government and partner support to producers in terms of seeds, fertilizers, tractors, capacity building and management as well as favourable rainfall in 2018 benefitted crop development in most parts of the country. Harvesting of maize, millet, sorghum and rice crops was completed in November 2018, while harvesting of irrigated cassava will continue until end-July 2019. Some localized flooding and Fall Armyworm outbreaks were recorded with about 11 200 hectares of maize and 8 300 households affected. However, 2018’s national cereal production is estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, about 5 percent higher than the previous season’s output and 12 percent above the five-year average. Paddy production, which accounts for the bulk of the cereal production, is estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the previous year.
Pasture supply and quality are currently favourable, allowing animals to maintain good body conditions. The animal health situation is generally satisfactory. However, the incidence of seasonal diseases, including the foot-and-mouth disease in northwestern parts, the sheep and goat plague and rage were observed with the latter presenting an upsurge during this year.
Following an above-average harvest, import requirements for the 2018/19 (November/October) marketing year are forecast at 860 000 tonnes, slightly below the last five-year average.
Strong economic growth and increasing food price inflation
According to the Economic Intelligence Unit, the economic growth is forecast to remain strong at about 6.4 percent in 2019, up from 6 percent recorded in 2018, mainly due to public investment in infrastructure, high foreign direct investment inflows into the mining sector (bauxite and gold) and agricultural production. In 2019, the year-on-year food price inflation is forecast at 10.2 percent, slightly up compared to the previous year. The increase is mainly due to the impact of the 25 percent increase in fuel prices in the last quarter of 2018 on food production and transportation costs.
Continued assistance needed for vulnerable people
Despite the overall favourable food security conditions, some vulnerable households still need external food assistance. According to the November 2018 “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis, about 90 000 people were estimated to be in need of food assistance from October to December 2018, with a significant increase from 5 000 food insecure people in March-May 2018. This number is expected to increase to 117 000 during the June to August 2019, if no mitigation actions are taken. Furthermore, according to the Global Analysis of Vulnerability, Food Security and Nutrition (AGVSAN), in December 2018, 22 percent of the household in Guinea are in a situation of food insecurity with about 41 percent located in N’Zérékoré Region.