Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook For USAID / FEWS-NET September 20 – September 26, 2012

1) Strong easterly wave activity across West Africa is expected to enhance precipitation amounts during the next week, which may trigger localized flooding over parts of eastern Guinea, southeastern Senegal, and border areas of Mali and Cote d’Ivoire. Continued oversaturation of ground conditions in Guinea also heightens the risk for water-borne diseases outbreaks.

2) Both anomalous seasonal rainfall and northward position of the Inter-Tropical front has favored breeding conditions for desert locusts over the southern Mauritania-western Mali border, central Niger-eastern Mali, Chad, and east-central Sudan. The continuation of above-average rainfall during September could lead to locust outbreak across many regions.

3) Anomalously heavy rainfall over the Ethiopia highlands has caused inundation along the Atbarah and Dinder Rivers, affecting thousands of people and households in southeastern Sudan. Ground conditions may worsen with additional rainfall throughout September, as there is also a continued risk of crop damage for many local areas in Sudan.