Latin America & The Caribbean Weekly Situation Update (As of 7 August 2023)

REGIONAL: EL NIÑO

KEY FIGURES

1.7M PEOPLE IN THE DRY CORRIDOR AT RISK OF FACING HUMANITARIAN NEEDS DUE TO EL NIÑO-INDUCED DROUGHT

In early July, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) declared the onset of El Niño conditions. According to latest predictions from the WMO, there is a 90 per cent probability of a moderateto-strong El Niño persisting during the second half of 2023. The Global El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Analysis Cell has identified nine countries within Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) that are at high risk of humanitarian impact: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Colombia (North), Guyana, Peru (East), Suriname, Venezuela (North).

Latest seasonal forecasts indicate that below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures are expected in these countries through at least September, with some suggesting it will continue through until the end of the year. In the Dry Corridor in Central America, UNICEF estimates 1.7 million people are at risk of facing humanitarian needs due to drought. Persistent dry conditions are likely to worsen the already-reduced water supply in the region and negatively impact crops for upcoming harvests. These countries are also likely to face increased health risks, including malnutrition and higher incidences of vector-borne diseases such as dengue.

Unusually warm North Atlantic ocean temperatures have also been observed, with opposing effects on Caribbean rainfall and hurricane activity to those of El Niño. The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) predicts that tropical Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperatures will remain well above average for the next three months. This will amplify heat stress in the Caribbean, with increased temperatures, humidity, and heatwave frequency, rivalling record conditions of previous years. The high Atlantic temperatures increases the potential for flooding and cascading hazards due to heavy rains. Severe shortterm drought has already developed in certain areas, while long-term drought is affecting Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. CariCOF warns of uncomfortably high temperatures between November 2023 and January 2024, with humidity and heat waves further intensifying heat stress. Forecasts expect that El Niño conditions will persist through early 2024, increasing the risk of wet conditions in parts of the Caribbean and Ecuador.

GUATEMALA: HEAVY RAINFALL

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1.4M PEOPLE AFFECTED BY SEVERE RAINFALL IN WESTERN GUATEMALA

On 3 August, the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction (CONRED, per its Spanish acronym) issued an institutewide red alert, following months of heavy rainfall in the communities of western Guatemala. The severe weather has resulted in flooding, mudslides, erosion and widespread damage to roads, bridges, schools and buildings.
According to CONRED’s latest update (as of 4 August), some 547 rainfall-related incidents have affected around 1.4 million people, leaving 22 people dead and 248 people seeking refuge in shelters. At least 4,224 people were evacuated and a further 8,726 are considered to be still at risk. In addition, the severe weather has moderately damaged almost 3,000 homes and severely damaged at least 111. The red alert, which was endorsed by the National Disaster Reduction Council with a focus on hydrometeorological hazards and forest fires, instructs all Government institutions to jointly monitor imminent risks and activate response protocols and procedures within their Institutional Response Plans. This comes following the declaration of an institute-wide orange alert on 12 July in response to El Niño and its potential impacts.

REGIONAL: IRREGULAR MIGRATION

KEY FIGURES

+250K MIGRANTS HAVE CROSSED THE DARIEN JUNGLE SO FAR IN 2023

Migrant and refugee numbers within Latin America and the Caribbean are reaching record levels. According to official figures from the Panamanian Government, more than 250,000 people have crossed the Darien jungle on foot during the first seven months of 2023. This is already equal to the total number of crossings in 2022, the highest year on record. More than 40,000 of these crossings were made by children, half of whom are under age five and have specific needs. Venezuelans, Haitians and Ecuadorians account for most of the mixed movements – 55 per cent, 14 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively. There are also people from other parts of the region, such as Colombia and Peru, as well as from as far away as China,

Afghanistan and Nepal. These figures, along with reports of an increasing number of migrants risking journeys across the seas to the Caribbean islands, indicate an overall trend of increasing migration and desperation across the region. While IOM and UNHCR are already working with national institutions, host communities and other organisations to provide necessary humanitarian aid, they have called for a comprehensive and collaborative regional approach to address protection and humanitarian needs of migrant populations and to improve response capabilities.