Attachments
Key Messages
- The Dry Corridor, areas of Alta Verapaz, and the Highlands will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through May 2026 as a result of at least three consecutive years of subsistence staple-grain crop losses caused by multiple weather shocks. Having exhausted food reserves, the prolonged reliance on markets and high food prices will further limit purchasing power and increase indebtedness. Income earned from seasonal labor by the poorest populations will be used primarily to repay accumulated debts, making only minimal dietary improvements likely at the start of 2026. To secure their basic food needs, households will resort to unsustainable coping strategies, such as atypical migration and the sale of productive assets.
- Meanwhile, most of the remaining parts of the country will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January. Increased income from temporary employment in commercial crop harvests and the availability of own-produced staple grains have allowed food consumption to improve, through at least January. Beginning in February, as labor opportunities decline and staple-grain reserves are depleted, household access to food will begin to deteriorate. With the premature onset of the lean season, more poor households will resort to negative coping strategies to meet basic food needs and will experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through May 2026.
- In coffee-growing areas, small and medium-scale producers report average yields and favorable, stable sale prices, similar to those of last year. These conditions benefit both producers and temporary workers who migrate from different regions of the country to work in large-scale commercial production. While these seasonal incomes ease pressure on household purchasing power, they will largely be used to repay atypical debts and purchase staple foods in the coming months, rather than be saved, thereby reducing households’ ability to cope when the lean season begins.
- Maize harvests underway in the Western Highlands, along with the current development of postrera tardía crops in northern Guatemala, will contribute to a continuous flow of fresh domestic grain to markets in the coming months and should help stabilize prices. In December, maize prices showed slight fluctuations driven by the staggered arrival of national production to markets. However, delayed harvests have prevented typical seasonal price declines, leaving maize prices 5 percent above both last year and the five-year average. In contrast, bean prices have experienced significant reductions in recent months due to duty-free imports and increased availability of domestic grain.