Attachments
Key Messages
- From October to January the highest area-level outcome will be Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Due to zero or below-average staple grain harvests, a long period of market dependence amid high food prices, as well as the rapid use of income for debt repayments and the immediate purchase of staple grains, the poorest households will have to resort to the use of negative coping strategies to meet essential food needs.
- In October, many areas will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the delay in the production cycle. Poor rural households still do not have the typical household stocks of staple grain crops that alleviate the necessity of market purchases. They will continue to allocate a large proportion of their income to purchasing food. From November to January, many households in the areas previously in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to the seasonal availability of subsistence grown maize and beans, and the increase in income from the employment of temporary agricultural labor for various cash crops.
- From February to May, the areas classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will expand as stocks of staple grains deplete, sources of migration income are reduced, and demand for local employment is atypically low. Poorer households in the most affected areas will experience the early onset of the lean season. FEWS NET estimates the population in need of food assistance will peak during this period between 1.5 and 1.99 million people.
- The areas of greatest concern are the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and Altiplano, where poor rural households have continued to use negative coping strategies to meet their food needs. Despite an average season of demand for agricultural labor that allowed for income generation, the prolonged reliance on the purchase of food and the deterioration of livelihoods over two consecutive years only allowed poor households to make minimal improvements in food consumption.
The analysis presented here is based on information available as of October 31, 2024.