ReliefWeb

A. Situation Analysis

Description of the Disaster

The ongoing El Niño event has led to one of the worst droughts in recent decades throughout much of Central America and Haiti, with small-scale farmers sustaining heavy losses in staple crop production during the Primera/Printemps season. Forecasts for the remainder of the ongoing Postrera/Été season are mixed, and further adverse impacts on agricultural production are possible. Urgent food assistance is currently required for approximately 2.5 million people already experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity. Assistance needs will increase with an early start to the 2016 lean season in February/March, with up to 3.5 million people in need of assistance. The El Niño phenomenon is the strongest in the last three decades. Guatemala is the country that expects to be the most affected in 2016 in Central America, followed by Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

The government and WFP conducted a food distribution; however, food insecurity is still a problem in several communities that have not been reached, and the communities will require support at least until December 2015 and January 2016. The selected area by the National Society and after the assessment has detected that the families are not covering the “household economic security”; this is the reason why in October 2015 the National Society decided to develop a plan of action in order to support the families in Quiché, covering the gap detected related to food insecurity as they have been not assisted by other organizations.

According to the Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology of Guatemala (INSIVUMEH), the 2015 rainy season has been strongly affected by El Niño and its side effects. Rainfall levels have been very low this rainy season. Eastern regions of the Guatemalan dry corridor have not had rain for over 30 or 40 days.

Assessments from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicate that much of the Central American dry corridor is experiencing a drought, where soils have very low moisture content and are classified as "withered". According to FEWS NET estimates, at least 25 municipalities in the eastern and central dry corridor of Guatemala are facing Crisis-level (Phase 3, CIF) food insecurity and 15 others are stressed (Phase 2, CIF). The affected region includes areas in the departments of Chiquimula, Jutiapa, Jalapa, Zacapa, El Progreso, Baja Verapaz, Quiché, Totonicapán, Huehuetenango and San Marcos.