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Guatemala

GIEWS Country Brief: Guatemala 23-December-2024

Attachments

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Output of delayed 2024 maize season estimated at average level
  • Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 marketing year preliminary forecast at above-average level
  • Prices of white maize and rice decreased year-on-year in October due to improved market availability
  • Acute food insecurity decreased by 12 percent year-on-year, in line with lower food inflation

Output of delayed 2024 maize season estimated at average level

Harvesting of the main season maize crop is nearing completion, slightly later than usual, as dry spells in the key producing areas of Petén and Verapaz in the March to May period caused soil moisture deficits and delayed plantings by about one month. The grain-filling and maturation stages between June and August were negatively affected by severe dry weather conditions, with frequent short periods of heavy rains which caused flooding and waterlogging, further curbing crop development. Harvesting operations started around mid-September and the outcome is estimated at average level as the impact of expected low yields is likely to be fully offset by an expansion of the planted area.

Harvesting operations of the minor maize season crops are expected to start at the end of December. Despite dry weather conditions and high temperatures in the main producing region of Petén in September and October had a negative impact on soil moisture levels, favourable precipitation amounts in November partially restored conducive conditions for the crop maturation stage.

Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 marketing year preliminary forecast at above-average level

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are expected at an above-average level of about 2.8 million tonnes. The increase of cereal imports over the last decade has been primarily driven by the high demand of wheat for food consumption and yellow maize to support the steady growth of the poultry sector.

Prices of white maize and rice decreased year-on-year in November due to improved market availability

Prices of white maize weakened seasonally from September to November 2024 following the commercialization of newly harvested crops and were about 20 percent lower than the previous year, reflecting ample stocks from the 2023 output and large import flows during the prolonged lean season between July and mid-September 2024. Rice prices were stable for seven months since December 2023 and rose between August and September 2024, just ahead of the start of the main season harvest. Then, in October 2024, prices started declining seasonally and were about 9 percent above the previous year’s level in November. Wholesale prices of black beans decreased for the third consecutive month last November, on account of the improved seasonal supply from the main harvest. Prices were slightly higher than one year earlier, after sustained increases from February to August 2024.

Acute food insecurity decreased by 12 percent year-on-year, in line with lower food inflation

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 2.7 million people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between September 2024 and February 2025, about 12 percent below the 3.0 million people in the same period a year before. Food inflation decreased from 9.16 percent in October 2023 to 2.46 percent in October 2024, the lowest level recorded since November 2021, significantly easing access to food. However, the extended lean season in 2024 has severely affected most vulnerable rural households in some areas of Alta Verapaz, Altipiano and the Dry Corridor, where the delay of the main season harvest last August has worsened livelihood conditions and hampered access to food.