Between October 2020 and February 2021, which corresponds to the harvest of basic grains and coffee, around 103,000 people (21% of the analysed population) face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require immediate action to reduce food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods. Of these people, 93,000 are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 10,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). For 72% of the analysed households, food consumption gaps are mitigated by humanitarian food assistance and by the use of coping strategies. The population in IPC Phase 3 or above is expected to increase between March and May 2021 to 120,000 people (25% of the analysed population), and again from June to August 2021 to 157,000 people (33% of the analysed poulation).
The worst affected micro-region is Chortí which is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with between 3% and 6% of households facing Emergency conditions (IPC Phase 4) throughout the three analysis periods. The population of Chortí is composed of indigenous people, day labourers who work in coffee cultivation and farmers of basic subsistence grains; all of whom suffer recurrent food crises. During the second projection period (June to August 2021), the Ocotepeque micro-region is expected to move into a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity situation. The Güija and Cayaguanca micro-regions will likely remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout all the analysis periods, although an increase in the number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above is expected in both projections.