Central America and Caribbean: Key Message Update, October 2018

Report
from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 17 Oct 2018 View Original

Irregular rainfall still affecting the region’s staple production

Key Messages
- In Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, the extended dry spell affected the Primera staple grains harvests, mainly for subsistence farmers located in the Dry Corridor. Precipitation forecast for the remainder of the rainy season – until November – indicates average to below-average rains ending earlier than usual which could damage Postrera crops, especially in the Pacific zone.
- Maize and bean market supply is assured by the current Primera harvest, carried over stocks from last year and imports. Maize prices have increased atypically since June to above-average levels, mainly due to the drought-driven speculation in the markets while bean prices remained stable or decreased to below-average levels.
- In the Dry Corridor in Central America, during the peak season of casual labor demand, households affected by the extended dry spell will be able to cover the minimal calorie intake requirements and will be classified in Stress (IPC, Phase 2), until at least January 2019. However, certain households may face Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) outcomes without changing the area classification. The number of households in Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) will increase through the lean season.
- In Haiti, important cumulative rainfall during the end of August and early September allowed land preparation and sowing activities for the Summer campaign, as well as the development of staple crops (maize, beans, tubers).
- In Haiti from October 2018 until January 2019, some areas will remain in Stressed (IPC, Phase 2), while other in Minimal (IPC, Phase 1) food insecurity. However, some households affected by the dryness (in Nord and Nord-Est) that have not yet recovered from past shocks could be classified in Crisis (IPC, Phase 3), but their number is not enough to change the classification of the area.