Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Overall favourable weather conditions for 2022 wheat crop
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Above‑average cereal output obtained in 2021
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Total cereal import requirements in 2021/22 forecast at below‑average level
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Prices of wheat flour increased between December 2021 and May 2022
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War in Ukraine expected to negatively affect country’s economy
Overall favourable weather conditions for 2022 wheat crop
Planting of the 2022 wheat crop, to be harvested between July and September, took place last November. According to satellite‑based images, vegetation conditions were near‑average across the country as of mid‑May (VCI map). Precipitation amounts have been overall adequate during the season and yields are expected at near‑average levels.
Planting of the 2022 maize crop, for harvest from August onwards, is ongoing under overall favourable weather conditions.
Above‑average cereal output obtained in 2021
Harvesting of the 2021 cereal crops, mainly maize and wheat, finalized last September and the aggregate output is estimated at 436 000 tonnes, about 15 percent above the five‑year average level. Production of maize is officially estimated at 233 000 tonnes, 10 percent above the average level due to favourable weather conditions during the season, which boosted yields. Similarly, the 2021 wheat output is set at a well above‑average level of 136 000 tonnes due to high yields and large plantings.
Total cereal import requirements in 2021/22 forecast at below‑average level
Total cereal import requirements in the 2021/22 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a below‑average level of 600 000 tonnes. Import requirements of wheat, which account on average for about 90 percent of the aggregate cereal import volume, are forecast below the five‑year average level, at 550 000 tonnes, amid the harvest of a large output in 2021.
Prices of wheat flour increased between December 2021 and May 2022
The national average retail prices of wheat flour increased by 23 percent between December 2021 and May 2022. Prices reached values well above the levels of May 2021, reflecting high export quotations from the Russian Federation, the main wheat supplier to the country.
Prices of potatoes, another important staple food, showed a declining trend between October 2021 and January 2022 and increased slightly afterwards. In May 2022, prices of potatoes were well above their levels a year before.
War in Ukraine expected to negatively affect country's economy
According to the World Bank , the war in Ukraine is likely to adversely affect the country's economy through trade disruptions, reductions in tourism and remittances inflows, and elevated commodity prices. Domestic prices of crude oil and food have increased sharply since the beginning of the war in late February 2022 due to disrupted supplies from the Russian Federation and Ukraine. As a result, the pre‑war forecast of a 5.5 percent annual Gross domestic production (GDP) growth in 2022 is expected to drop to 2.5 percent.