Georgia

Climate Risk Country Profile - Georgia

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KEY MESSAGES

  • Average temperatures in Georgia have increased steadily since the 1960s and are projected to rise by more than the global average by the end of the 21st century.

  • By the 2090s, the average temperature in Georgia is projected to increase between 1.4°C to 4.9°C above the 1986–2005 baseline, for emissions pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively

  • The frequency of heat waves is projected to increase significantly by the 2090s under higher emissions pathways, representing major risks to human health, livelihoods, and biodiversity.

  • Rapid retreat of glaciers is expected and is likely to shift the regional hydrological regime, increasing the risk of flooding and ultimately driving transitions in local ecosystems.

  • The effects of rising temperatures on agricultural output could threaten an important source of income and employment in poorer rural areas and may consequently increase inequality and raise the risk of malnourishment.

  • Projected long-term reductions in the flow rates of rivers in Georgia, rising average temperatures, and existing issues with energy distribution networks are expected to increase the risk of water shortages in the spring and summer months. As such, there is a need for more international cooperation in the management of transboundary rivers in the South Caucasus.

  • River flow reductions during summer months, coinciding with peak energy demand for residential cooling, have important implications for Georgia’s energy supply, which depends primarily on domestic hydropower sources.

  • The capital city, Tbilisi, is subject to urban heat island effect, making its residents vulnerable to health risks as the frequency of extremely high temperatures increases over the coming decades.

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