Attachments
Description of the Event
Approximate date of impact
The 2023 electoral calendar is as follows:
-11 July: Deadlines for the filing of declarations of candidacy.
-11 August: Start of electoral campaigns for the presidential election.
-16 August: Start of electoral campaigns for the legislative election coupled with departmental and council elections.
-25 August: End of the electoral campaign period.
-26 August: General elections.
The most likely period of impact is upon publication of results
What is expected to happen?
Although apparently stable, the situation in the country was rocked in recent years by a series of events that are still likely to wreck mayhem. On 7 January 2019, mutineers attempted to overthrow the government following a prolonged absence of the President from the country due to ill health. Since then, the illness and partial incapacity of the Head of State have been seen as a weakness, providing an opportunity to some political opponents to take over power. For the younger generation, this is the reason why they are clamouring for a swing of the pendulum.
Uncertainty about the Head of State's ability to continue in office has led to a power struggle within his own party. In addition, the current term of office is marred by allegations of bad governance and repeated scandals that increasingly make the government unpopular with certain segments of the population, especially the youths. According to Charles M'Ba, an opposition leader, "these seven years of political unrest left their mark, and severely damaged the confidence of the people of Gabon in the State, and in the entire system: its administration, its school and judicial systems, and its police force".
Despite attempts at appeasement by the current government, through a dialogue initiated with the bone and sinew of the country in a bid to lead to a peaceful election, some opposition heavyweights remained aloof. Charles M'Ba, a member of the opposition Union nationale (UN) party and former Minister of Finance under Omar Bongo Ondimba, said at the time that he was not very convinced by the rounds of meetings under engineered by the government. “Loving kind words are good, but proof of love is better," he summed up. Listening to your opponents is a good thing. Now, let’s get down to work. Today, the country is at peace, OK, but that doesn't stop me from being worried about the months to come." Source: https://www.lepoint.fr/afrique/gabon-a-quelques-mois-des-elections-un-climat-poli- tique-tendu-03-04-2023-2514692_3826.php du 3 avril 2023.
Not very long ago, an opposition coalition strongly denounced the poor organization of the recent revision of the electoral lists and threatened not to recognize the lists that were to be published. Several opposition leaders continue to express their dissatisfaction with the lack of transparency in the electoral process. The political strife between the government and the opposition keeps raging, and this is something that arouses fears of an outbreak of violence during the upcoming elections.
These fears are also heightened by the fact that the elections will be threefold (presidential, legislative and local). Therefore, the stakes could be significantly higher, as there could be negative consequences of any protests. Although the harbingers of pre- and/or post-election violence are not yet clearly visible, it is nonetheless worth noting that the pressure increases as the date draws nearer. Political one-upmanship is gaining grounds in public debates and with the economic conditions of the population (high cost of living, water and electricity supply), there is no guarantee that things won't get out of hand.