ReliefWeb

What are the current conditions?

At 2 PM Fiji Time TD04F was named Tropical Cyclone Evan.

The satellite image this morning showed Tropical Cyclone Evan located approximately 350km west of Apia, Samoa. The system is continuing to intensify as it moves east at approximately 18km per hour. The maximum winds near the centre of the system are currently 56km per hour.

Further intensification is predicted and it is likely that the system will become a significant tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Predictions have the centre of Tropical Cyclone Evan near Samoa, north of Savaii before slowing down east of Savaii and north of Upolo. It is expected the system will then move back across the Apolima Strait between the main islands of Samoa on a westsouthwest track.

Whilst these predictions are worse for Samoa, they are potentially better for northern Tonga and eastern Fiji as the further east the system moves before tracking southwest, the less likely it is to affect northern Tonga and eastern Fiji. However, it is advisable to keep up to date on forecasts as the system may still pass over northern Tonga and eastern Fiji as a tropical cyclone, possibly Category 3.

What are the likely effects caused by Tropical Cyclone Evan?

Tropical Cyclone Evan is likely to cause significant rain and heavy northeasterly winds in Samoa starting early tomorrow morning and increasing throughout the day. It is predicted to pass closest to Apia early Friday morning based on current modeling.

The Disaster Management Office in Samoa has already met to discuss the potential impact and necessary preparedness measures.

Should the system pass northern Tonga and eastern Fiji as a Category 3 tropical cyclone destructive winds (165 – 224km per hour) with some roof and structural damages and power failures are possible.

What countries will be affected?

Countries likely to be affected are Samoa, Tonga and Fiji.