Climate Risk Country Profile - Fiji

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• Long-term warming is expected to be below the global average in Fiji, ranging between 0.6°C and 2.6°C by the 2090s when compared with the 1986–2005 baseline. The range of possible temperature rises highlights the significant differences between 21st century emissions pathways, while uncertainty remains high.

• Fiji has a high degree of vulnerability to climate extremes such as drought and extreme rainfall and any increases in the frequency and intensity of such events could represent a major threat to livelihoods, infrastructure, and human wellbeing.

• Considerable uncertainty surrounds projections of future precipitation trends and extreme climate events; further research is required to constrain the wide range of current estimates.

• The frequency of tropical cyclones affecting Fiji is projected to decrease, though the magnitude of the decrease remains uncertain and the intensity (wind speed) of cyclones may increase.

• Sea-level rise will have a range of impacts on Fiji’s islands, including potential inundation, coastal erosion, and saline intrusion, the risks of storm surges and king tides may also be exacerbated.

• Fiji has significant assets and infrastructure with high exposure to climate-related damage.

• Degradation of key natural resources is inevitable, coral reefs and associated fisheries are under significant threat, with declines in soil and water quality are likely.

• The various projected impacts of climate change are likely to affect Fiji’s poor, marginalized, and remote communities most significantly