Update of Seasonal Outlooks at Four-Month Lead:
October-December 2005 Forecasts
Climatology is expected across the entire domain.
Northern Horn of Africa
Climatology is expected, except locally over northern Ethiopia and southwestern Sudan, where there is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above average rainfall.
There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring below normal rainfall over portions of northern Zambia, and locally over southeastern Madagascar. There is a slight tilt in the odds favoring above average rainfall over northern Mozambique and along the central coast.
Weather Hazards Assessment Graphic:
Weather Hazards Text Explanation:
1. Below normal rainfall across northeastern Tanzania, a significant portion of Kenya and southern parts of Somalia has degraded pasture and reduced water available for crops. Coastal portions of Kenya, which does normally receive rainfall this time of year, has seen moisture deficits slowly rising during the past month. Inland, in parts of Kenya, where conditions are the worst in the region, now has deficits that exceed 300 mm. Deficits from 50 mm to 250 mm are widespread across the rest of the area. These deficits are adding onto previous years rainfall shortcomings. Little to no rain has fallen in June, and these conditions are likely to persist into the coming week. The little rain that has fallen has mostly confined itself to the coastal areas.
2. Ongoing rainfall in the Lake Victoria region has brought the lake levels back from nearly 0.75 meters below normal to 0.59 meters below normal. Further improvement is expected as significant amounts of precipitation have fallen within Lake Victoria’s basin since the last measurement was taken. Even with the improvement, the lake does remain below normal, and this is reducing the amount of hydroelectric power being generated in Uganda.
3. Poor conditions across central and western Gabon as a result of negative anomalies of up to 400 mm will have significant implications for pastures. Where conditions are worst, near the coast, less than 25% of normal rainfall has fallen since March. In central portions of Gabon conditions are better. However, deficits still range from 100 mm to 300 mm. Relief will not likely come to Gabon until the rains return in October.
4. Water resources and degraded pastures continue to be of concern across southern and eastern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, portions of Mozambique and extreme northeastern South Africa which is the result of a poor 2004-2005 wet season. Negative rainfall anomalies of 200 mm to 500 mm or 30% to 60% will continue to impact the area until the rains return in December. Conditions are exceptionally bad in the southern Mozambique provinces of Gaza and Inhamambane where drinking water supplies are low. Manicaland and Masvingo provinces in Zimbabwe have also been hit hard, where deficits are in excess of 600 mm.
AUTHOR: Eric J Wolvovsky
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Alvin.Miller@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7552
FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID. The FEWS NET weather hazards assessment process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned.