ReliefWeb

Main season rainfall likely to be significantly below-average in the eastern Horn

Key Messages

• FEWS NET anticipates that the March‐May season in the eastern Horn of Africa will perform poorly. Rainfall is expected to begin late, to be poorly distributed over space and time, and to total only ~60‐85 percent of average. This is a significant deterioration compared to earlier forecast analysis (Figure 1) and would have significant impacts on crop production, pasture regeneration, and the replenishment of water resources.

• In the worst‐case scenario, rainfall would be less than 60 percent of average, and would represent a major failure of the sub‐region’s main season, similar to seasonal performance in 2000 and 2011, two very dry years. There is a 30 percent chance of the worst case scenario.

• In either case, poor seasonal performance is likely to negatively affect food security in a region still recovering from an Emergency/Famine in 2011. An expansion in the size of the food insecure population and an increase in the severity of food insecurity is likely. A forthcoming alert will describe in more detail the likely food security impacts of this forecast.

• Given the impacts of extreme food insecurity and famine during 2011 on human health and household livelihoods, and the likelihood of a poor March‐May season, humanitarian partners should immediately implement programs to protect livelihoods and household food consumption in the eastern Horn of Africa.