ReliefWeb

Generally dry conditions are expected in the next three months. In the Horn of Africa, above-average rains during the last week of January may allow current Desert Locust swarms to mature and breed in Kenya while rains in March and April could cause favourable conditions for a second generation of breeding in Kenya and southern Ethiopia. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (or Indian Niño) could develop in the next few months that may lead to greater cyclone and monsoon activity by early summer.

Winter/Spring breeding areas (February—June/July)

• Horn of Africa: drier than normal in February and May; wetter than normal in March-April (N and C Kenya, S Ethiopia, S and C Somalia) and June (NW Kenya, SW Ethiopia)

• Red Sea & Gulf of Aden: drier than normal Spring breeding areas (March—June)

• SW Asia: drier than normal until June

• Central Region: drier than normal except for interior of Saudi Arabia (March-April)

• Western Region: drier than normal except for Algeria/Morocco border, W Sahara (April)
  Summer breeding areas (June—July)

• W Africa / Sudan: early rains in Sudan (June); wetter than normal (July)

• Yemen interior: wetter than normal

• Indo—Pakistan: early rains (June) and wetter than normal

The latest seasonal precipitation predictions are derived from six models, CFSv2, ECMWF and Copernicus (CMCC, DWD, Méteo-France, UKMO), provided by the World Climate Service (WCS). The more models, the better the overall forecast.