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Seasonal precipitation predictions in Desert Locust spring/summer breeding areas (April - September 2021)

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Although drier than normal conditions continue to be anticipated in the spring breeding areas of the Horn of Africa, slightly wetter conditions may occur in northwest Kenya and parts of southern Ethiopia. Similar expectations may occur in parts of southwest Asia during the spring. In the summer breeding areas, early and wetter than normal rains are anticipated for West Africa and Sudan, normal to wetter than normal rains in the Yemen interior, and early and late rains for Indo/Pakistan.

Spring breeding areas (March–June)

  • Horn of Africa: slightly wetter than normal in NW Kenya (April–June) and S Ethiopia (April, June); drier than normal elsewhere

  • SW Asia: drier than normal except April (SE Iran) and June (S Iran, SW Pakistan)

  • Central Region: drier than normal in the interior of the Arabian Peninsula

  • Western Region: wetter than normal in W Sahara and S of the Atlas Mountains (April), followed by dry Summer breeding areas (June–September)

  • W Africa / Sudan: early rains (June) followed by wetter than normal

  • Yemen interior: normal to wetter than normal

  • Indo–Pakistan: wetter than normal early (June) and late (September) rains

The latest seasonal precipitation predictions, provided by the World Climate Service (WCS) and derived from six models, CFSv2, ECMWF and Copernicus (CMCC, DWD, Méteo-France, UKMO GloSea6), are one of the most sophisticated products available.