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Overview Our satellite analysis has identified hotspots of conflict-driven vegetation loss in Tigray in 2021 along the border with Amhara, around Kafta-Sheraro National Park in the north, and in the southern highlands. Rainfall, temperatures, locust invasions and fire cannot fully explain the patterns of observed woody vegetation loss, meaning conflict-driven deforestation is the most likely cause.
Wars can disrupt the supply of food, fuel, and other essential resources, forcing affected communities, as well as military forces, to increase their use of local ecosystems – we hypothesise this is what has happened in Tigray. The region has been under a de-facto blockade since November 2020, leading to a collapse in fuel and electricity supply that has likely, and anecdotally, led to an increased use of wood as a fuel source.
Over the last three decades, Tigray has seen a widespread recovery of woody vegetation as part of a suite of nature-based solutions to address food insecurity and poverty in the region. These successes are now under threat from conflict-driven deforestation. At the same time, previous recovery of woody vegetation may also have provided a buffer against the environmental impacts of the war.
The recovery of people and the environment from the war in Tigray need to be considered together: trees and other natural vegetation have been key to conserving water and soil in the past, reducing the impacts of the ongoing conflict, and they remain a major pillar of food security and climate resilience in the long-term.
In this report, Henrike Schulte to Bühne presents results from a large-scale analysis of high-resolution open-source satellite data showing vegetation change in Tigray.
Key findings
- We identified hotspots of woody vegetation loss across Tigray. These declines are most likely linked to conflict-driven collapse in the availability of fuel for heating and cooking.
- The long-term recovery of vegetation across Tigray appears to have slowed down, although it has not yet reversed.
- The restoration success of the last three decades has likely provided a buffer against the impacts of woody vegetation loss. However, ongoing deforestation is potentially eroding the efficacy of nature-based solutions in supporting food security across Tigray.
- After the end of the conflict, long-term recovery of human well-being and livelihoods will require restoring and protecting the environment in Tigray.