Regional Climate Analysis: Horn Of Africa - Integration of remote sensing into intersectoral assessments across the Horn of Africa arid zone (July 2024)

INTRODUCTION

Climate-related shocks are increasingly impacting communities in crisis-affected areas around the world. The rising frequency and severity of phenomena such as flooding, drought and extreme heat, intensified by climate change, are further undermining the coping capacities of already vulnerable communities.

REACH conducts intersectoral assessments in contexts of crisis to provide a clearer picture of humanitarian needs. Globally, REACH has a wider programmatic aim to explore and identify best practices for integration of remote sensing into these analyses to better measure the impact of climate shocks and climate change on communities. This aligns with REACH’s broader objective to mainstream climate analysis in its research.

In addition, it is well known that environmental phenomena are transboundary. At the same time, the mechanisms through which REACH work are largely country-based, often confining the research extent to boundaries that present an incomplete picture from an environmental perspective. Therefore, this analysis takes advantage of the opportunity to conduct a regional analysis to highlight the value of providing an environmental lens at the appropriate scale. Through this, REACH hopes to advocate for more regional analysis in future and encourage more harmonised data collection and programming.

This report focusses on the Horn of Africa region, much of which has faced extreme climatic variability in the past few years, negatively affecting water access, as well as food security and livelihoods. From protracted drought between late 2020 and early 2023, extreme rainfall and flooding hit the region in late 2023. This report focusses specifically on the transboundary arid zones, which make up the majority of Somalia, northern Kenya and eastern Ethiopia, and share many similarities in environment, climate and livelihoods.

Using both remote sensing analysis and recent primary data from REACH’s intersectoral assessments conducted across the region, this report aims to analyse climatic trends and impacts of climatic shocks. The subsequent section of the report explores correlations and comparisons between remote sensing indicators and household/key informant indicators to further understand what remote sensing can tell us about the potential humanitarian situation and triangulate information from primary data, particularly in hard-to-reach areas.

KEY MESSAGES

• Following protracted drought across the arid zone of the Horn of Africa between late 2020 and early 2023, much of the region was struck by heavy rains and flooding in 2023 and early 2024, driven by climate patterns such as El Niño, and further exacerbated by climate change. This extreme interannual climate variability highlights the importance of disaster risk reduction programming to reduce the risk to vulnerable communities arising from a disparate range of potential climate shocks in future.
• Similarities and connections can be observed between climatic shocks, livelihoods and impacts on communities across the arid zone of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia. This includes reports of similar shocks and impacts across this climatic zone, as well as heavy rainfall in one country (Ethiopia) affecting flooding downstream (in Somalia) for example. This highlights the importance of considering environmental and livelihood zones, which extend beyond individual country boundaries, under a regional lens to better prepare for and address the impacts of these phenomena.
• Climate shocks including droughts and floods were some of the most reported shocks across areas assessed by REACH in all three countries, often reported more frequently than conflict and insecurity, indicating the increasing impact of climatic shocks on the humanitarian situation across the region. Data also suggests long-term impacts of the 2020-23 drought on livelihoods, reducing coping capacity to subsequent shocks in the long-term.
• Correlations were identified between indicators from both household and key informant data collected by REACH, and remote sensing indicators in the locality. For example, borderline and poor Food Consumption Scores (FCS) were generally found to be related to poorer vegetation condition (VCI) and relatively lower rainfall (SPI) compared to acceptable FCS scores. This presents some interesting insights into how remote sensing can be used to flag potential shocks and triangulate information on the humanitarian situation, including in hard-to-reach areas. However, further research is required to further refine the analysis parameters and further consider additional contributing factors.