Attachments
Key messages
- With varying degrees of certainty, climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa. The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya.
- Should below-average rains materialize, crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition are likely.
- Humanitarian partners should engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of preparedness activities and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.
With varying degrees of certainty, climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa. The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Should below-average rains materialize, crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition are likely. Humanitarian partners should engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of preparedness activities and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.
Forecasts by ICPAC and Other Meteorological Agencies Suggest Likely Below-Normal Rains
While ENSO neutral conditions currently prevail after the strong 2023/24 El Niño event, most climate prediction centers are forecasting the emergence of a La Niña episode by October - December,1 combined with above-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. In the past, such conditions were associated with drought in the eastern Horn of Africa during the October - December Deyr/Hageya/short rains season, as well as elevated chances of dry conditions during the following March - May 2025 Gu/Genna/long rains season.
The most recent consolidated forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) suggests a high probability of below-normal rains over southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania, where the October - December season accounts for a significant share of yearly precipitation (Figure 1a). July forecasts from NOAA, ECMWF, UK MET and WMO also indicate probable dry conditions during the October - December rainy season in the areas identified by ICPAC’s consolidated outlook. The Climate Hazards Center’s (CHC) statistical forecasts, based on Indian and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature forecasts (Figure 1b) resemble closely the outlook provided by ICPAC and suggest significant rainfall deficits across several areas of he region during the October - December season, particularly in central and southern Somalia, northern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia.