Note on developing El Niño conditions end 2018 - beginning 2019 (10 October 2018)
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Download document El Niño outlook
The probability of El Niño is about 50-55% for October-November, and increases to 65-70% during the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently confirmed that there is a 70 per cent chance of an El Niño developing by the fourth quarter of 2018 through early 2019.
A climate phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences weather patterns in tropical regions, more so than in the temperate regions. ENSO is the greatest source of inter–annual climate variability.
The impact of El Niño will start before ENSO reaches peak values and will continue after the ENSO has returned to neutral conditions.
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