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Implications of Ukraine Conflict on Food Access and Availability in the East Africa Region, Update #5, August 2022

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Highlights

• Purchasing power across the Eastern Africa Region continues to be affected by the fallout of the conflict in Ukraine amongst other factors. The price of a local food basket has increased by 49 percent over the past twelve months, with Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan continuing to record the most expensive food baskets in the region (USD 31.8, 27.3 and 26.5, respectively).

• Cereals and vegetable oils continued to push the cost of the food basket up, with Sudan recording a more than twofold increase in cereals prices since the conflict in Ukraine started. Nutrient-rich food continue to be less affordable than a year ago, with Sudan recording a more than twofold increase in milk price and Somalia recording a 44.5 percent increase in the cost of milk.

• Between July 2021 and July 2022, the cost of fuel went up by 62 percent, adding to economic hardship for people already struggling with high food prices. Burundi has continued to suffer from fuel shortages since the conflict in Ukraine broke out, which resulted into more than a twofold increase in fuel prices compared to a year ago. The fallout of the conflict in Ukraine have also affected fuel prices in Somalia, which increased by almost 92 percent compared to a year ago.

• Sudan keeps on recording hyperinflation (125.4 percent in July 2022), whilst Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burundi, and Djibouti continued to record double digit inflation. Soaring fuel and food prices coupled with a prolonged drought, accelerated the annual inflation rate in Kenya (8.3 percent, the highest rate since June 2017).

• Except for South Sudan, all countries in the region recorded double digit food inflation in July 2022, stressing food is becoming less and less affordable. Average regional food inflation stood at 27.9 percent, pushed up by Sudan (recording the highest food inflation rate in the region at 83.7 percent), Ethiopia (35.5 percent) and Rwanda (32.7 percent). In Somalia food inflation was more than double than annual inflation.

• Currencies across the region depreciated against the U.S. dollar between July 2021 and July 2022; with South Sudan and Ethiopia recording the highest yearon-year depreciation in the official and parallel market. Kenya and Uganda also saw their domestic currencies losing value against the USD, however to a lesser extent.