Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Update - With The Emergency Far From Over, Immediate Action Is Required To Save Lives and Prevent the Next Catastrophe (May 2023)

Key Messages

1. In the face of one of the worst droughts in recent history, famine has been prevented in the Horn of Africa, thanks in part to the efforts of local communities, humanitarian actors and authorities. In the aftermath of five consecutive poor rainy seasons, more than 30 million people were reached with life-saving and life-sustaining assistance in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia in 2022.

2. However, the lack of a famine declaration does not mean tragedy was averted and the humanitarian emergency is not over. An estimated 43,000 people may have died in 2022 in Somalia due to the drought, half of whom may have been children under age 5. And drought is not the only driver of needs. Conflict and insecurity in Ethiopia and Somalia cause displacement, contribute to a volatile operating environment and generate, exacerbate and compound high levels of needs. Economic shocks, including high food prices, limit access to food and essential commodities. Over 43 million people are in need of assistance across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia in 2023, including over 32 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity, and more than 8 million children and pregnant and lactating women facing acute malnutrition. The three countries are also hosting approximately 1.5 million refugees and asylum seekers, according to UNHCR.

3. The devastation wrought by the 2020-2023 drought crisis in the region will be acutely felt for years to come. More than 2.7 million people have been displaced by the drought across the three countries and more than 13 million livestock have died. This has had devastating impacts on livelihoods for pastoralists as well as on the availability of milk, a critical source of nutrition for children. Restocking, if even possible, will take years while historical trends in the region indicate that many displaced people may not return to their areas of origin.

4. While improved rains are starting to ease the impacts of the drought, they also bring new risks and challenges. The March to May 2023 rains have performed better than was forecasted, which may marginally improve food security in the months ahead. However, heavy rains drove flooding across parts of the region, causing widespread damage and affecting at least 900,000 people. More flooding is expected later this year—including due to the forecasted El Niño—which is likely to drive further displacement, death and disease. At the same time, admissions for severe acute malnutrition remain very high—with a 30 per cent increase in the first quarter of 2023 over the same period in 2022—and additional challenges accessing clean water, sanitation and hygiene, and a heightened risk of water-borne diseases, including cholera, due to floods are likely to further exacerbate acute malnutrition.

5. Funding in 2023 has been insufficient and late: additional resources are urgently required to prevent a return to the worst-case scenario. More than four months into the year, the Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) is just 25 per cent funded, with Ethiopia just 22 per cent funded and Kenya just 21 per cent funded. Only two clusters in Somalia and three clusters in Ethiopia and Kenya are above 20 per cent funded. As a result, humanitarian partners are running out of money, with many across the three countries forced to suspend, draw down or halt programmes due to lack of resources. Funding for cash-based food assistance—the predominant modality—in Somalia, for example, will decline dramatically after June, while under-resourcing of local partners across the three countries has caused many to reduce their response at a time when communities need it most. Without an immediate injection of additional resources, communities that have been ravaged by drought and other drivers of needs will face a dramatic reduction in assistance in the months ahead. More than $7 billion is required to provide life-saving and life-sustaining assistance to nearly 32 million people in the region via the Humanitarian Response Plans. An additional $833 million is required to assist more than 1.6 million refugees and members of host communities in Ethiopia, while $16.1 million is required to respond to the needs of migrants in Somalia.

6. It is vital that additional donors immediately step-up their solidarity, as humanitarian response in the Horn of Africa continues to rely predominantly on a single donor, the United States of America. The US currently accounts for almost 79 per cent of 2023 funding against the Ethiopia Humanitarian Response Plan, more than 79 per cent of the Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan and 67 per cent of the Kenya Drought Response Plan. The donor base must be diversified to enable partners to increase and sustain operations.

7. At the same time, the world must act now to help people in the Horn of Africa, who are the human face of the global climate emergency, prepare for the future. Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia each contribute less than 0.1 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet they are bearing the brunt of the global climate crisis. According to recent analysis, the 2020-2023 drought in the Horn of Africa would not have happened without human-induced climate change, which has also made agricultural drought in the region about 100 times more likely.

8. Development and climate financing must be immediately unlocked to assist communities and governments impacted by this crisis to adapt to the changes they are already facing and become more resilient in the future. Immediate life-saving activities must be complemented by medium and longer-term action that reduces vulnerability and risks, and builds resilience, including climate and economic resilience, as well as political solutions to end conflicts. Yet, climate financing is currently extremely difficult to access and very little of it has come to countries in the Horn of Africa. More must urgently be done to ensure that countries globally fulfil their climate financing pledges, and that climate financing is easily and rapidly accessible to those who need it most. More must also be done to target development funding to the communities and organizations who need it most, and who are likely to have the greatest and most-lasting impact.