Food supply prospects for the second half of year 2013 (September 2013)

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Generally the food security situation in 2013 for most parts of the Region remained stable or slightly improved due to the positive effects of the three consecutive rains (deyr and gu) on pasture and water availability that sustained good to average livestock conditions, improved terms of trade due to the declining trend in relief cereal prices and improved livestock prices.

The prospects for stable or increased livestock prices are promising, whereas the current cereal price trend is highly fragile since it is mainly determined by food aid distribution. Milk production is currently increased in all zones, except Siti zone and other woredas that received below normal rainfall like Daloado, Dolobay, Barey, Fik, Salahad, Lagahida, Qubi, Hamero, Raso, west-Imey and East Imey woredas.

However, in the coming months the purchasing power of the poor and middle households is expected to decline significantly due to low/little crop production in Siti zone and some pocket area of deyr received zones. Moreover, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate in areas that received below normal rainfall. These includes Siti zone, Fik, Hamero, Qubi, Salahad, Legahida, Mayumuloko of Nogob zone, Barey, Dolobay, Raso, and West Imey of Afder zone,

Dolo Ado of Liban zone, Elweyn and East Imey woredas of Shabelle zone, pocket area of Galadi and Bokh woredas of Dollo zone. Siti Zone reported to be most affected by the performance of the rains. Improvements are expected if the performance of the next seasons is good; karan (July to Sept) for Siti and deyr (Oct-Dec2013) for other zones.

Therefore it is anticipated that the food security status is likely to deteriorate in Siti Zone and some parts of the Region. Hence, 691,970 people will require emergency food assistance in the second half of 2013.