Food supply prospects for second half of 2012




The overall food security of the region has been stable and shown some improvements since the last deyr /karan season. Terms of trade is favorable for the pastoralists in areas of better access and supply of cereals. The near normal to normal gu rains also helped to improve pasture and water availability to sustain and improve the body conditions of livestock.

Gu 2012 rains were near normal to normal contributing for regeneration of pasture and improving water availability in most parts of the region. Exception were most of Shinile in the north, southern woredas of Gode (Kelafo, Mustahil, and Ferfer), eastern parts of Warder (Danot, Geladi and Deradtolle), parts of Korahe (southern parts of Shilabo, south western parts of Dobewain, south and eastern parts of Shekosh, and south eastern parts of Kebridehar), Dolobay and Barie of Afder, and Dolo Ado of Liban which remained either dry or received much below normal rains during the season. In most of these areas, pasture and water resources have been depleted, early season internal livestock movements and needs for water trucking have been reported.

While food security situation in most of the Somali region have slightly improved since the last deyr season, recovery from the previous consecutive dry season shocks has been weak. Milk production is currently declining due to low calving rate and expected to improve after 2 to 4 months’ time provided the next karan and deyr seasons are normal. Little or no crop harvests expected from the agro-pastoral and sedentary areas of Jijiga and the agro-pastoral areas of the southern seven zones as a result of the erratic nature of 2012 gu rains.

Shinile zone will remain the worst affected followed by the southern districts of Gode zone, Dolobay of Afder, and Dolo Ado of Liban. Improvements are expected if the performance of the upcoming seasons is good, i.e., karan (Jul-Sep/2012) for Jijiga and Shinile and deyr (Oct-Nov/2012) for most parts of the southern seven zones.

Therefore it is anticipated that the current food security status is likely to persist throughout the region and hence, 1,539,279 people will require emergency food assistance in the second half of 2012.